Funnel Clouds in Texas, July 21, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PWS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 85-86 DEGREES...
SO AM EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WILL RAISE POPS CENTRAL AND NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. KHGX VWP SHOWS
S WINDS TO 6000 FEET SO FEEL SOME OF THE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNON. WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES THERE AS WELL.
WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWNWARD AS 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSER TO
90. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE. 43/46

WEAK VORT LOBES TRAVELING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. THESE HAVE BEEN THE IMPETUS THAT IS ALLOWING
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE ONSHORE. WORTH MENTIONING AS THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL AID IN MIXING OUT THE RECENT SMOKE/HAZE THAT HAS HUNG
OVER THE CWA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE HAZY SKIES HAVE HAD A
MINOR EFFECT ON DAILY HEATING...SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE AS YESTERDAYS
IAH AND CLL MAXS WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A TYPICAL MID
TO LATE JULY DAY. FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. DEW POINTS ON THE RISE THIS MORNING
AS THE 70 LINE NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER A VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND REGIME. LEANING ON THE ETA WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ALIGNING OVER SE TX TOMORROW SO HAVE BUMPED 30% POPS
TODAY UP TO 40% TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...BASED ON THIS AFOREMENTIONED ALIGNMENT. RIDGE STRENGTHENING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS BEING LOCALIZED TO THE
SEABREEZE. THUS WILL BROAD BRUSH 20% POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED MODELS ADVERTISING MIDWESTERN TROUGHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR CWA PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS MONDAY. THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT A MODEST 30% THROUGH DAY 4 AND 5
WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

31/47/41

&&

AVIATION: EXPECT SEABREEZE TO BE MAIN WX PLAYER TODAY. THINK BULK OF
SCT SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST (ESP SW OF
HOU METRO)...THOUGH WE COULD GET A FEW OUTLIERS FURTHER NORTH DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  92 73 93 73 95 / 20 -  20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)           91 74 93 74 94 / 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        89 80 89 80 89 / 40 20 40 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.