Puerto Rico, 2004

Damaging Wind in Puerto Rico, July 21, 2004

July 21, 2004 · NWS SJU · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 thunderstorm wind, as filed by the National Weather Service.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$15 million
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 5:00 AM AST, 10 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 5:00 AM AST, 10 hours 20 minutes before
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 21 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 70
WEST AT 08Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING TO MOVE WNW JUST OVER 20
KNOTS LEAVING A DEEP LAYERED SE FLOW SURFACE THROUGH 25K FEET ACROSS
THE NE CARIB AND LOCAL AREA. UPPER LOW NEAR 27N 65 WEST NEARLY
STATIONARY PAST 12-18 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THEN EAST TO WEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL CARIB
ALONG 15.5N. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM WAVE AXIS NE ACROSS LOCAL
AREA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMBO OF UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST OF LEEWARDS AND UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GFS STILL FORECASTING LOW TO DRIFT SSW TODAY
THEN SOUTH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IN SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTORMS. WITH BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND THIS MAY NOT ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO MAXIMIZE TODAY. THE FOCUS OF RAIN ACROSS P.R. MAY
THUS OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WHERE 4 TO 5 INCH PRECIP TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT BEHIND
ITCZ CONNECTION TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE...WITH DECREASING MOISTURE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO DOMINATE
LOCAL WEATHER.

&&

.TROPICAL WAVE ...
A LOW LEVEL VORTEX (PROBABLY 3-5K FT) EMERGED FROM HIGH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO LAST NIGHT...AND WAS MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 22 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE VORTEX BEGAN
TO ENTER A REGION OF WEAK SHEAR SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND
HISPANIOLA...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS AGAIN FLARED JUST TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATING
CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER. EAST
TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY HAVE A
SHORT 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD TODAY TO FURTHER ORGANIZE AND ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP. LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED SURFACE TROUGHING
WITH THE WAVE AXIS...AND NO EVIDENCE OVERNIGHT TO SUGGEST A SURFACE
LOW. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS WILL BE INTERESTING. DEEP CONVECTION AND
SE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
OUR LOCAL SW CARIB WATERS TODAY...AND SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  77  88  77 /  70  50  50  40
STT  87  76  90  76 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ740.
VI...NONE.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 6:00 AM AST, 9 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED JUL 21 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-221000-
600 AM AST WED JUL 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY
IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...AS IT MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  EVEN THOUGH THIS WEATHER FEATURE HAS
PASSED THE LOCAL AREA...LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES WILL MOSTLY BE
AFFECTED THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT ISLAND WIDE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE EVEN EXISTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...WHERE 4 TO 5 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA COULD EXCEED 35 KNOTS...CAUSING ROUGH
AND CONFUSED SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  EVEN THOUGH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS...THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL LIE FROM THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE WEST COAST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-221000-
600 AM AST WED JUL 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WHICH PASSED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PASSED...LINGERING MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THE RAINS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING...BUT NO MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
NEARING THE REGION AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY....AS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BRISK FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.  HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS WARRANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THURSDAY. LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MEAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT NONE OF THESE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

KIMBERLAIN

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Northwest

When
July 21, 3:20 PM AST
Where
Northwest County, Aguadilla
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$15 million
Reported by
EMERGENCY MANAGER

Several homes reported blown off zinc roofs. Small hail was reported in Aguadilla and Hatillo.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, July 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5413772.