Hail in Texas, February 23 to 24, 2004

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

.UPDATE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING EWD THRU SW U.S. AND NRN MX
THIS EVENING AS VORT MAX DROPS THRU BASE OF TROF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COAHUILA AND NOW MOVING ACROSS
RIO GRANDE. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF CONVECTION BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES OUT OF RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND INTO COASTAL BEND...MOVING INTO
A SFC LAYER THAT WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AND WRLY
850-700MB FLOW ABOVE THAT. ALSO WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THAT WILL BE LAGGING SOMEWHAT TO WEST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 09Z AND MOVE INTO COASTAL BEND
COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THIS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE FORM 700-300MB Q-V CONV AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS
WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
NRN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT RISK AREA AND WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION IN
ZONES. WILL DO SOME REWORDING OF ZONES TO BETTER HANDLE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP. OTHER CONCERN IS THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS THE EAST.
TEMP/DEW POINT GAP NARROWING ACROSS COASTAL BEND WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND REPORTING 5-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES. TRICKY SITUATION AS FAR AS HOW DENSE FOG MAY GET AS
HIGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST START TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. YET
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SEEN ON 11-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SPREADING SOUTHWEST
FROM HGX CWA...NOW INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY. NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SEA FOG SEEN FURTHER SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AS DEW
POINTS A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT AND NEARSHORE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BUT MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED DENSE AREA PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEBB-LASALLE-MCMULLEN-DUVAL

76...SHORT-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241200-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1145 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LAREDO TO PORT
LAVACA LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH FREEZING
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FROM COTULLA TO TILDEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TR/MJG/JD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1018 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

TXZ239-240515-
WEBB-
1018 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEBB COUNTY THROUGH
1115 PM CST...

AT 1018 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EL CENIZO...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
LAREDO.  THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WINDS GUSTING TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES AN HOUR.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

TXZ229-240530-
LA SALLE-
1055 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE
COUNTY THROUGH 1130 PM CST...

AT 1055 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ENTERING NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY...OR ABOUT
7 MILE WEST OF WOODWARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WINDS GUSTING TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES AN HOUR.