Damaging Wind in Tennessee, July 25, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE.  THESE STORMS ARE INITIALIZING IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THEIR STRENGTH
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNSET BUT BELIEVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  THE
STORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MID WEST HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE TN RIVER VALLEY. WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA, TN   72  84  71  86 /  60  70  60  40
KNOXVILLE, TN     69  83  69  82 /  60  70  60  50
BRISTOL, TN       66  81  68  80 /  60  70  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN     68  81  69  82 /  60  70  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MJB/DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-251000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
1230 PM EDT (1230 PM CDT) SUN JUL 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.  DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE THESE STORMS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL.
SINCE THE MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DH/MJB