Damaging Wind in Tennessee, July 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THESE HAVE FORMED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM MISSOURI INTO OHIO.  THE FRONT IS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MRX CWA.  OUR AIR MASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WILL CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT THIS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER
BATCH OF STORMS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT REACHES INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZED THIS EVENING AS THE
STORMS EXIT THE AREA.  A BIT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THU THROUGH TUE)...MODELS SHOW MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT KEEP EASTERN TROUGH
IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA THU.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON WHEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN...AND NOT SO GREAT
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  ETA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE...AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE UPPER
WAVE...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FRIDAY.  FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT WILL BEEF SAT POPS UP TO CHANCE
ALL ZONES.  WILL GENERALLY LEAVE LATER PERIODS ALONE FOR NOW. A FEW
TWEAKS...BUT MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  93  70  89  65 /  50  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  85  64 /  60  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  86  64  86  63 /  60  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  86  61  82  58 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

MJB/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-151000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
530 AM EDT (430 AM CDT) WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

MJB