Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, May 11, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN EVENT TNT WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS NEAR WARM FRONT WHICH IS SITUATED
RIGHT ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND HASNT MOVED MUCH
NORTH TODAY.  SEVERE INDICES LOOK VERY GOOD FOR ROTATING STORMS IN
NORTHEAST CWA...AND LCLS LOWEST THIS AREA.  FURTHER WEST SHEAR NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT LINES OF CONVECTION TO FORM WITH WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.  MEANWHILE WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING.  FOR WEDNESDAY COLD RAIN SHOULD
END ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY NOON.  THEN LOOKING DRY UNTIL LATE WED
NITE/THU AS ANOTHER S/W COMES THROUGH TROF AND WE GET OVERRUNING
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS REGION.  THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS
AND ETA ON AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF PCPN...WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE
CONSISTENT GFS FOR MOMENT.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
FOR TIME BEING ALTHOUGH GFS HINTS AT LIGHT/SCATTERED PCPN.  DID MAKE
SOME MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY WED AND THU AS COLD AIR
JUST OFF TO THE NORTH SETTLES IN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. NOT A LOT AS FAR AS UPPER DYNAMICS GO...WITH MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY OVERRUNNING THE FRONT. BIG QUESTION
BECOMES TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND. HAVE OPTED TO GENERALLY STICK WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST
BASED OFF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TIMING...WITH A CHANCE OF TRW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INDICATE SOME SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REAL WARM DURING THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH THE POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S EACH DAY.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
MN...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE.
&&

TDK/AP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-121000-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT.  SOME OF THOSE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TDK