Hail in South Dakota, June 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TODAY HAMPERED BY OVERNIGHT MCS IN
NE/KS. THIS HAS EATEN AWAY OUR DEEP MOISTURE...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE REGION. MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE...TAIL END OF NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE/INSTABILITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MN...MESOLOW IN CENTRAL SD THAT
HAS DEVELOPED ON COLD FRONT WITH DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND DECENT
SHEAR...THEN MAIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH
WILL LIKELY SPAWN AN MCS OVER NORTHEAST CO...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

MAIN CONCERN EARLY ON WILL BE SEVERE THREAT WITH MESOLOW/COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. ENOUGH SHEAR WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION...WHICH COULD ALLOW A LINEAR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX TO DEVELOP...DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTH THIS EVENING. MCS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST WOULD LIKELY THEN MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA. WILL GO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN CWA FOR LATER MCS...AND
PROBABLY SCATTERED FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP ON INCOMING
COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST
AND DO NOT PLAN ON ANY BIG CHANGES.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS...WILL CONTINUE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ADD
INTO SATURDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT MAY ALSO SUGGEST CONTINUING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. CURRENTLY GOING DRY SUN-TUE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
CHANGED A LATER DATE.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-161200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA MIDDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.  STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THEY SPREAD TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE LARGEST THREAT WITH STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM WINDOM TO WINNER. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM SPENCER TO YANKTON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM CDT WEST OF THE
JAMES
RIVER...AROUND 700 PM ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND 900
PM
FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
433 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             7 NNW YALE              44.53N 98.04W
06/15/2004  0.88 INCH        BEADLE             SD   PUBLIC

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
517 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             5 NE BANCROFT           44.54N 97.68W
06/15/2004  0.75 INCH        KINGSBURY          SD   PUBLIC

&&

JRM