Flooding in South Carolina, September 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREA RADARS SHOW A BACK EDGE TO THE MAIN PRECIP WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES...WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER...LOCATED OVER N GA
AT 07Z. THIS SUGGESTS A TAPERING OF POP FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SOME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH. POP WILL BE KEPT CATEGORICAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...UNTIL CIRCULATION CENTER OF FRANCES REMNANT
LOW IS SAFELY PAST THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHO MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY OVER IN THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE KEPT ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENT THAT
NEW FLOODING DEVELOPS AS WATER MOVES THRU WATERSHEDS. MAIN WIND
THREAT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. A POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING RUNS OUT AT 6 AM...THINK ADVISORY SHOULD TAKE CARE OF
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

EXPECT TO BE DEALING WITH TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
WELL. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS.

NO REAL WHOLESALE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE ON THE WINDING DOWN OF THE
BIG FRANCES REMNANT PRECIP EVENT. KEPT HIGH POP ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT
SOME SEMBLANCE OF CHANCE POP ON THURSDAY AS WELL...OWING TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF REMNANT LOW ACTING ON REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE SUN TO PEEK
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW
DEGREES THERE TODAY. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATEST GFS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH SOME DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE MODEL
RESPONDS BY KEEPING WESTERN CAROLINAS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL
ADJUST PRECIP FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BY KNOCKING OUT SOME OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE ZFP/AFM. NO CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY.

TEXT PRODUCTS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AROUND 430 AM. EXPECT MORNING
UPDATE WHEN TOR WATCH 812 RUNS OUT OR IS REPLACED.
&&

.AVIATION...
THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER KPDK AT 06Z WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN NE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE MAIN SHIELD OF
RAIN APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH OF SC BY 12Z AND NC BETWEEN 21-24Z. SFC
COND PRES DEF REMAIN VERY LOW OVER ACTIVE TERMINALS UNTIL 13Z...WILL
FORECAST WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT IFR CEILINGS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOP IN THE AREAS AFTER THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND WILL CONTINUE PRECIP MENTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...KCLT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR PM TS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VIS CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AT
KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 TODAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 UNTIL 6 AM EDT.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-082
     TODAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034>037-054>057-066>069
     TODAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 UNTIL 12 PM EDT.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 TODAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-081000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA LATER TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED AT 441 AM. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 437 AM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 542 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY...FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE AWAY THURSDAY...AFTER
WHICH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TORNADO          1 W LOCKHART            34.79N 81.48W
09/08/2004                   UNION              SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON RIVER RD AND NEIL SHOALS RD WITH
            HOMES DAMAGED, TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

TJB