Damaging Wind in South Carolina, July 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUE)...
INITIAL VORTICITY LOBE IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS REACHED
SEVERE LIMITS...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THERE WERE SEVERAL
STRONG WIND MAX AREAS NOTED IN THE BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE VORTICITY LOBE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AND
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. STILL HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY 18Z
SUN. EXPECT TO SEE AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AGAIN TOMORROW
ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE WEAK
AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW. AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. DRIER AIR (850-500MB LAYER) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL CHANCES HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. BLEND OF MAV/FWC
TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
FOLLOWING THE FAVORED ENSEMBLE MEANS THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THU-FRI HOWEVER A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
PERSIST. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SILENT 20 POP WILL WORK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY...THE EXCEPTION BEING CHANCE POPS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SAT. GFSX MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THESE VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TAKING HOLD OVER THE WATERS AS VORT LOBE LIFTS NE
ALONG THE COAST.  WILL SEE WINDS VEER SW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW.  STILL BELIEVE THE
GFS IS A BIT OVERDONE...SO SPEEDS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.  WEAKENING SFC TROF WILL HANG ON OVER THE INLAND
CAROLINAS MON-TUE...SO WILL KEEP SW DIRECTION WHILE SPEEDS COME
DOWN.  WILL SEE SOME OSCILLATION TO THE WEST WED-THU AS HARD-TO-TIME
IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION.

SEAS A LITTLE IFFY IN THIS SW FLOW.  WW3 FOR ILM02 FORECAST POINT
GIVES ME JUST ONE HOUR OF 6 FT SEAS SUN EVENING...AND WHILE I
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE 6 FT AT 41013...WILL KEEP IT TO 4-5 FT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  INITIALIZED THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH VCTS AND THAT SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT SO FAR.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY CONVECTION THAT CAN BE TIMED WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE
TODAY IS THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  HAVE CARRIED VC AND PROB GROUPS FOR
OVERNIGHT TS ACTIVITY...AND NO SIGNIFICANT WX BEYOND 12Z SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.ILM FORECAST TEAM...
SHORT/LONG TERM: PFAFF
MARINE/AVIATION: RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-181000-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND TO SURFSIDE
BEACH. THE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE STRONGEST A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF LOW TIDE WHICH OCCURS 215 PM EDT.

A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLOOD            CONWAY                  33.84N 79.05W
07/17/2004                   HORRY              SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN THE CITY WITH UP TO 1 FOOT OF WATER
            IN MANY PLACES. SOME ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

&&

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     LIGHTNING        SUNSET BEACH            33.87N 78.51W
07/17/2004                   BRUNSWICK          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A MAN AT SUNSET BEACH CAUSING A LARGE
            ENTRANCE AND EXIT WOUND. STATUS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S LELAND              34.18N 78.04W
07/17/2004                   BRUNSWICK          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING DAWS CREEK RD OFF HIGHWAY 133. THE
            TREE IS BLOCKING THE ENTIRE ROAD.

&&

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             4 S MYRTLE GROVE        34.08N 77.88W
07/17/2004  1.00 INCH        NEW HANOVER        NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BETWEEN MONKEY JUNCTION AND
            SNOWS CUT.

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORTON PLANTATION        34.06N 77.94W
07/17/2004                   BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN OFF OF HWY 133.

&&

43

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

NCZ096-097-172000-
BLADEN-PENDER-
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...

AT 250 PM...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EXTENDING FROM THE TOWNS
OF COUNCIL AND KELLY IN BLADEN COUNTY...ACROSS CURRIE AND ROCKY POINT
IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

THROUGH 4 PM...MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN BLADEN AND THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF PENDER COUNTY CAN EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN A SHORT TIME
WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON SECONDARY ROADS OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS WHILE THE
STORMS CROSS YOUR LOCATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

TRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH      34.21N 77.80W
07/17/2004  40 MPH           NEW HANOVER        NC   MESONET

            35 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE OCEANIC RESTAURANT ON
            WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.

&&

DOPPLER