High Surf in Puerto Rico, September 8, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST WED SEP 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. WE STILL
EXPECT THE FAR OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS GUSTS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...ST
CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS IVAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS...GFS MODEL IS SHOWING THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF MOISTURE
FIELD...IN THE SOUTHEAST INFLOW OF STORM...REMAINING ACROSS LOCAL
AREA...MORE SPECIFICALLY PUERTO RICO INTO/THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH
FRIDAY...TO MAKE FOR PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DRIER. WILL BE WATCHING TO OUR
EAST TO SEE WHAT BECOMES OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 44W.
IF IT DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANTLY...IT WILL PROBABLY LIFT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC...BUT IF IT REMAINS
WEAKER AS AN OPEN WAVE...IT MAY APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 25W OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...WE EXPECT LONG PERIOD EAST SOUTHEAST SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH
(SOUTHWEST) COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND ST CROIX. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. WE ALSO HAVE A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  80  92 /  40  40  20  30
STT  80  91  78  91 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ730>750. HSA AND CFW (WATCH) SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH
     COASTS OF PRZ002-003-007-011-013
VI...SCA AMZ730. HSA AND CFW (WATCH) SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
     COASTS OF VIZ002.

&&

BCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED SEP 8 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-091000-
600 AM AST WED SEP 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG WINDS DIVERGING FROM HURRICANE IVANS CIRCULATION ALOFT ARE
SINKING OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS WIDESPREAD SINKING IS
A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER PUERTO RICO...COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO.  THIS IS EVIDENCED BY A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
THE ISLAND TO OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS THE
RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HURRICANE IVANS PASSAGE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS.  THESE STRONG
WINDS...IN TURN...WILL CREATE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS BUILDING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 FEET TODAY...AS WELL AS LARGE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WHICH
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY MIDDAY TODAY FOR THE ABOVE
AREAS DUE TO THESE DEVELOPING...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR SHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IVAN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH
SEAS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A BRISK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL MEAN THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE FORESEEN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AT THE MOMENT THOUGH...THERE IS NO
INDICATION THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-091000-
600 AM AST WED SEP 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIVERGING FROM HURRICANE IVANS CIRCULATION
ALOFT ARE SINKING OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING.  THE RESULT OF THIS WIDESPREAD
SINKING IS A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THIS IS EVIDENCED BY A DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...A TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

IVANS PASSAGE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS.  THESE STRONG WINDS...IN
TURN...WILL CREATE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 10
FEET TODAY...AS WELL AS LARGE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTS OF SAINT CROIX. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY MIDDAY TODAY THE SOUTHERNMOST U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IVAN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT HIGH SEAS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS...BUT NO ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE FORESEEN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AT THE MOMENT THOUGH
...THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

KIMBERLAIN