Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, September 7, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
650 AM AST TUE SEP  7 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE E CARIB THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD PAST 24 HOURS AND WAS CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 70/71 WEST THIS
MORNING AND WAS MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTION OR WEAKNESS PERSISTS FROM THIS LOW NE ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS OUR OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO ANOTHER TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE NE CARIB OVERNIGHT TO AID IN LLVL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS...WITH DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR NOW MOVING INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND LIKELY A DRY
FAIRLY DEEP SAHARAN AIR LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. AT 5 AM
HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED AT 11.4 NORTH 58.5 WEST...MOVING JUST
NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 16 KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...BUT CONNECTING
TUTT AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL AID IN FAVORABLE
UPPER VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER STABLE AIR WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR FAIR AND HAZY WEATHER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF IVAN. IVAN REMAINS VERY FAR SOUTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GRANADINES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BEGINNING A MORE WNW
MOTION. IVAN HAS INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS PROCESS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY...AT LEAST. THE WIND
FIELD AND ACCOMPANYING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IVAN WILL INDUCE
ACROSS THE NE CARIB WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE LOCAL CARIB
WATERS AND COASTLINES...JUST UNDER TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND FRESH
20-25 MPH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN CORE OF RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...AS IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A COMFORTABLE DISTANCE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIB WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST
SWELLS FROM IVAN BEGIN TO ARRIVE...AND STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CARIB SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
LARGE SOUTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY IVAN. THESE SWELLS WILL BE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE PASSES BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARDS...WITH BEST ENERGY EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE FRENCH BUOY 41100 LOOKS TO HAVE PEAKED
THIS MORNING AT 3.8 METERS. MUCH OF THE SWELL ENERGY GENERATED FROM
IVAN WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SHOALS SURROUNDING
THE ISLANDS...BUT SUFFICIENT RAYS OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR CARIB WATERS TO PRODUCE HIGH COASTAL SEAS...AND HIGH AND
DANGEROUS SURF. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE
SOUTH COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ST CROIX...VIEQUES... SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS MAY JUST SCRAPE OUR FAR OFF SHORE CARIB WATERS WEDNESDAY...
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EASILY POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS THERE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOCAL CARIB WATERS
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  83  92  83 /  40  40  50  50
STT  88  82  93  83 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST TUE SEP 7 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-081000-
600 AM AST TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE STAGNANT...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL COME TO A CLOSE.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...WERE THE PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. BUT RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND THE LESSENING GRIP
OF THE SAME UPPER TROUGH MOVING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
MEAN FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

DETERORIATING MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE IVAN ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IVAN THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT ...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.  THE WIND WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRISK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE ISLAND AND PERHAPS EVEN
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH MAY INCLUDE ROUGH AND CONFUSED
SEAS...WINDS APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS...SEAS UP TO 9 TO 10 FEET...AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.

THE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY FOR DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND NO OTHER
SERIOUS WEATHER HAZARDS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-081000-
600 AM AST TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE STAGNANT...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL COME TO A CLOSE.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...WERE THE PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR
SCATTERED TO SOMETIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE LESSENING GRIP OF THE SAME UPPER TROUGH MOVING WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL MEAN FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

DETERORIATING MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...TO INCLUDE STRONG WINDS...ROUGH SEAS AND
BUILDING SEAS. ALL OF THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE IVANS
ARRIVAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER THIS MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IVAN THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...WHICH MAY INCLUDE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS...WINDS
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS...SEAS
UP TO 9 TO 10 FEET...AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELLS.

THE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SPOTTY STREET FLOODING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND NO OTHER
SERIOUS WEATHER HAZARDS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

KIMBERLAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2004

PRZ009-010-071915-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
WESTERN INTERIOR-
209 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2004

AT 204 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM YAUCO AND SABANA GRANDE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH SAN GERMAN...MARICAO AND MAYAGUEZ. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER SAN GERMAN AND MAYAGUEZ. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THESE AND NEARBY AREAS THROUGH AT 315 PM...AS THEY MOVE
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM.

SEELEY