Flash Flood in Puerto Rico, September 16, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ENTERED SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO SHORTLY AFTER
NOON TIME TODAY ACROSS MAUNABO AND HAS TRACKED MORE NORTHWEST SINCE
THEN...WITH A NEW CENTER ATTEMPTING TO FORM PER LATEST DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MUNICIPIOS...AND A CLOSED BANDING
FEATURE SIMILAR TO AN EYE DEVELOPING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BY SEVERAL SPOTTERS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
AS THE CENTER MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AND IS SPREADING WESTWARD. JEANNE WILL LIKELY RESUME A MORE WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION SHORTLY AND EXIT THE NORTH COAST BETWEEN MANATI AND
AGUADILLA...AND MAY RUN ALONG THE COAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STATUS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING EVEN
BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY OVER WATER. RAINBANDS ARE FORMING
AND INTENSIFYING ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF JEANNE AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY TO LEAVE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO
THE SLOW MOTION OF JEANNE AND ITS WNW TRAJECTORY...ITCZ MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE DRAGGED INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CONTINUED FLOODING POTENTIAL. NORTHWEST COASTAL MUNICIPIOS
MAY EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO
40-50 KNOTS ONSHORE WIND FLOW IN THE NW QUAD OF JEANNE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS REACHING OR NEARING RECORD HIGH LEVELS ATTM AND A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5
MAY BE SEEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOIL SATURATION IS TO BE
ASSUMED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  87  78  89 /  80  90  50  50
STT  76  88  77  89 /  80  70  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HURRICANE WARNING PRZALL AND AMZALL. CFW PRZALL. FFA PRZALL.
VI...HURRICANE WARNING VIZALL AND AMZ 710>730. CFW AND FFA VIZALL.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING VIZ002.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-161000-
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
RAINBANDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE TROPICAL STORM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE ISLAND. THE PRESENT
TRAJECTORY HAS THE STORM ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND BY MID MORNING AND EXITING THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THEREFORE...EXPECT PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO SEE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WITH TROPICAL FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE FREQUENT RAINBANDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CROSSES THE ISLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO RESULT IN RAPIDLY RISING
RIVERS ...MUDSLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN...AND ISOLATED...LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. REFER TO LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES ON
THE TOPICAL STORM.

...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO TO  AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THE STORM WILL HAVE EXITED THE ISLANDS AND RAINBAND
ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND
SOIL CONDITIONS FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-161000-
630 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. FLOODING OF GUTS...LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. REFER TO LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES ON THE
TOPICAL STORM.

...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO TO  AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THE STORM WILL HAVE EXITED THE ISLAND AND RAINBAND
ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED FLOODING OF GUTS...POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINS. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND SOIL CONDITIONS LANDSLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.