Flood in Puerto Rico, July 18, 2004

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST SUN JUL 18 2004

.UPDATE...ONCE AGAIN THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPED IN
THE AFTERNOON LINGERED UNTIL ALMOST 1000 PM DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT NO CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE
MADE. A FFA WAS ISSUED FOR RIO CULEBRINAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT US TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A WELL
DEFINED ONE. UPPER LEVELS ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS EVENT.

RIVERA

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND ALSO OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN GREATER AREA AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALLOWED THE STREAMER FROM THE RAIN FOREST TO INTERACT
WITH SEA BREEZE OVER PUERTO RICO. ONCE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ...A GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE USUAL COASTAL SECTORS OF THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO UNDER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCAL EFFECTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE SHOULD IMPACT USVI
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OF MONDAY TO EARLY EVENING AND
MODELS HINT AT WAVE AXIS MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TRAILING MOISTURE TO AFFECT AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUTT TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO RETROGRESSION THROUGH TUESDAY AND TO BECOME POSITIONED
ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA WHICH WOULD FAVOR CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO
ON TUESDAY.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...BETTER DEFINED IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF
WIND FIELD AND WEATHER...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE A RAIN
PRODUCER FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OF
LOCAL WEATHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH COULD DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WAVE CROSSING
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WIND OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  90 /  40  20  40  20
STT  75  90  77  89 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

RM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN JUL 18 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-191000-
600 AM AST SUN JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH
TROPICAL WAVE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND ONE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-191000-
600 AM AST SUN JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH
TROPICAL WAVE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND ONE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.