Heavy Snow in Oregon, December 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
310 AM WED DEC 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...3RD IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST QPF OF ANY OF THE OTHERS.  THE
TRICK WITH THIS ONE IS THAT IT IS WARMER WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS.
THUS, CURRENT HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE THREE
MOUNTAIN ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND FOR A PERIOD
EXTENDING THRU TODAY.  OTHER AREAS BELOW 5000 FEET WILL SEE RAIN AND
WIND.  HAVE ALREADY ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OREGON ZONES
AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MFR AND PDT OFFICES.  RAWS AND OTHER SFC
REPORTS SHOWING NUMEROUS OBS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CLASSIC HAMMERHEAD SIGNATURE MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  HEAVIEST QPF REMAINS TARGETED FOR
THE SIERRA AND CASCADES WITH SECONDARY BULLSEYE OVER THE BLUES AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FINALLY
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER PLUME COMING
ONSHORE DURING THURSDAY.  THIS TIME HOWEVER, A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BEGINS BUILDING AND DIRECTING THIS
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN AND LIKELY TO
BREAK ABOVE 50F ON FRIDAY WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE MID 50S REPORTS OVER
EXTREME SE OREGON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE
POSITION REMAINS OVER OUR ZONES WEAKENING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOIST FLOW COMING THROUGH THE
RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT LOW POPS FAVORING OUR
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM THE GFSLR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR
THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME AND A SECOND WAVE WITH LESS
CONFIDENT TIMING PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COME ON BOARD
WITH THE MONDAY DISTURBANCE AND THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
SORT OF TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF RUNS. SO LOW POPS WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ADEQUATE MIXING.

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH AREAS MVFR LOWER VALLEYS AND AREAS IFR HIGHER VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY
SUSTAINED OVER 25 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY ZONES 11 13 28
      FOR 6-14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3PM PST (4PM MST) WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 61 62
      63

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM AND AVIATION...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1129 AM MST TUE DEC 7 2004

IDZ011>016-029-030-ORZ061>064-080024-
BAKER COUNTY-BOISE MOUNTAINS-HARNEY COUNTY-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY-
MALHEUR COUNTY-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
1129 AM MST TUE DEC 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IDZ028-080024-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-
1129 AM MST TUE DEC 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH.  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 4500 FEET BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO
30 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
224 AM MST WED DEC 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       31 S YELLOW PINE        44.46N 115.58W
12/07/2004  30.0 INCH        VALLEY             ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DEADWOOD LODGE CO-OP...TOTAL 37 INCHES

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       IDAHO CITY              43.84N 115.85W
12/07/2004  7.0 INCH         BOISE              ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL 7 INCHES

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       26 ESE YELLOW PINE      44.72N 115.01W
12/07/2004  9.0 INCH         CUSTER             ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MIDDLE FORK LODGE...TOTAL 9 INCHES

0838 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NW CASCADE            44.52N 116.06W
12/07/2004  12.0 INCH        VALLEY             ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL 18 INCHES

0900 AM     HEAVY SNOW       10 N COUNCIL            44.87N 116.43W
12/07/2004  22.0 INCH        ADAMS              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR SNOW FALL 23 INCHES...WATER 2.13 INCHES

0400 PM     SNOW             1 W HILL CITY           43.30N 115.07W
12/07/2004  4.0 INCH         ELMORE             ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOW FALL 5 INCHES

0600 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CENTERVILLE             43.92N 115.88W
12/07/2004  8.0 INCH         BOISE              ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL 12 INCHES

&&

JS