Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, November 1, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
917 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KCNU-KSWO-KSPS LINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS TO INDICATE
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1230 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...EARLY TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
THREAT OF WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND EVEN THOUGH THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...IF THEY SHOULD HAPPEN TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH OVER AN AREA SATURATED WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND THE RAIN FROM EVEN A FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COULD
CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION AS APPLICABLE FLOOD
WARNING AND WATCH PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WHILE CONVECTION OR HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION