Flood in Oklahoma, March 4, 2004

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
205 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
ZONES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF
BAJA  MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO AREA TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WX/FLOODING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY.
WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DWPTS
IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN STRONG CONVERGENT ZONE OF 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...SPREADING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A BAND OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

STILL SOME QUESTION MARK CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
SHEAR PROFILES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG/FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOS/LEWP STRUCTURE
WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT.  WARM
SECTOR WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  IF THIS
OCCURS ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR
IN NATURE WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...PRIMARILY OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY BE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH THE SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT ENDING. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AS SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  PRECIP
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED ANTICIPATED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    62   48   56   38 / 100   70   20   10
FSM    69   51   64   38 / 100   80   20   10
MLC    69   51   63   39 / 100   50   20   10
BVO    57   44   54   34 / 100   70   20   10
FYV    66   51   58   37 / 100   80   20   10
BYV    66   50   60   36 / 100   90   20   10
MKO    67   50   60   36 / 100   70   20   10
MIO    59   44   56   35 / 100   90   20   10
F10    66   48   59   38 / 100   50   20   10
HHW    72   55   66   41 / 100   40   20   10

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL OPEN UP AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE LOW AND TRAVERSE
THE AREA.  INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
STRONG LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN 3 TO 4 INCH TOTALS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. AS THE SURFACE FOCUS SHIFTS
NORTH TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THAT WERE AFFECTED BY PREVIOUS RAINFALL.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PUSHES THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURGING NORTH. FORECASTED
INSTABILITIES REMAIN MARGINAL AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. IF THIS OCCURS...
CAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG AND HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 MAY
RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE...
MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BOW SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL MAINTAIN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING ONCE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER
AND STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONCE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...
SETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOKED
PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR
AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.