Heavy Snow in Oklahoma, February 14, 2004

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
400 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

DISC...
UPPER LOW MOVEMENT BY GFS/ETA VERY CLOSE...BUT
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. COLD CORE OF LOW
BRINGS  SNOW THREAT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-40
TODAY.  BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE RIVER
AT THE TEXAS BORDER. ADVISORY POSTED FOR TODAY
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN 5 COUNTIES
OF TSA CWA. SNOWFALL RANGING FROM A TRACE NEAR
I-40 TO AROUND THREE CHOCTAW COUNTY.  LE FLORE
RATHER BOTHERSOME...WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS FROM
NEAR ZERO  NORTH BORDER TO POTENTIALLY GREATER
THAN THREE INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE COUNTY.  A COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS SURFACE  TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
WHILE THE SNOW FALLS.  AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THE
MAX TEMPS ARE FLIP /FLOPPED TODAY WITH WARMEST
NORTH AND COLDEST SOUTH. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ON DUE
EAST VECTOR. DRYING OVERNIGHT AND STILL CHILLY
SUNDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    42   24   43   25 /  20   10    5   10
FSM    42   29   47   30 /  60   30    5   10
MLC    40   26   45   29 /  80   20    5   10
BVO    44   19   41   21 /  10   10    5   10
FYV    44   24   42   23 /  20   20    5   10
BYV    45   25   40   22 /  20   10    5   10
MKO    43   25   46   27 /  40   10    5   10
MIO    44   21   40   22 /  10   10    5   10
F10    41   26   47   25 /  50   10    5   10
HHW    39   30   45   31 /  90   60    5   10

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053...
OKZ073...OKZ075>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG
OK-CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER
OK-LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA
OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG
OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER
OK-WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL
BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN AREAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-40...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.  PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OKCWSWTUL FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...INCLUDING WIND CHILL
INDICES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA/WINTER/INDEX.HTML

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WILL OFFER
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION