Flash Flood in Ohio, July 3, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD...AND ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  HAVE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO ALL AREAS IN A TEMPO CAPACITY...DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE.  STORMS ARE MOVING A QUICKER THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT ARE STILL CONSIDERED SLOW MOVING...AROUND 10 MPH.  AS
A RESULT...PONDING ALONG RUNWAYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS.  VIS REMAINS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT
HTS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  OTHER TAF SITES ARE IN THE UPPER MVFR TO VFR RANGE
VIS WISE.  PLENTY OF MOIST AIR...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
PUSH THIS MOISTURE OUT...WILL KEEP THESE BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE AREA.  TRICKY FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY.  HAVE ADDED PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (TUES THRU SATURDAY)

DISCOUNTED ANOMALY ON LATEST GFS RUN THAT CROSSES REGION TUESDAY
NEVERTHELESS LEFT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS. COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE.  FRONT IS PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
EAST AS A RESULT THURSDAY SHOULD BE FAIR AND DRY.  CONTINUED THIS
TREND ON FRIDAY BUT INTRODUCED CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY AS NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE MOST OF OUR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 14Z.  SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WANTING TO PUSH NORTHWARD BUT HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WITH OUR WEAK WIND FLOW.  THIS WILL CHANGE A LITTLE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ABOUT 5KTS.  SO WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WATCHING STORM MOTION...FOR EXCESS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TODAY.  AS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED NEAR TERM CLOUD COVER
AS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS CLOUD FREE THIS MORNING.  MADE ONLY
SLIGHT TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.  NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH MID TO
UPPER 80 STILL FORECAST.  ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

AVIATION...

VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR WITH 5-6 MILES IN HAZE BY 14Z. DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES TODAY...WITH SCT-BKN 3500-4500 FOOT AND 8000-10000 FOOT
CLOUD LAYERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE WILL BE
WIDELY  SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT BKW...HTS AND PKB. WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT...FOG WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...
EXCEPT IFR AT EKN...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2004

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING
30M HEIGHT RISES AT ILN.  UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OVER
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM AND SHOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE
GRADIENT IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH HIGH CHANCE IN THE WEST TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST.  THINK THERE WILL AGAIN BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA AND THINK TEMPS
WILL REACH INTO UPPER 80S AGAIN TODAY.

AS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO REGION...A FRONT (MORE OF AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THAN A REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY) PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND BE SITUATED ALONG A ATHENS/CRW/BKW LINE
BY AROUND 18Z.  WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WEST AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY WILL ONLY CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS...AND THEN SPREAD
LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT STILL IN THE 80S.  WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY.  NOT REALLY EXPECTING A BIG
PRECIP EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO APPROACH 2 INCHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM..HC/KF
AVIATION...HC
LONG TERM...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-040755-
ATHENS OH-BARBOUR WV-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BRAXTON WV-BUCHANAN VA-
CABELL WV-CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON VA-DODDRIDGE WV-
FAYETTE WV-GALLIA OH-GILMER WV-GREENUP KY-HARRISON WV-JACKSON WV-
JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LEWIS WV-LINCOLN WV-
LOGAN WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-MEIGS OH-MINGO WV-MORGAN OH-
NICHOLAS WV-PERRY OH-PLEASANTS WV-POCAHONTAS WV-PUTNAM WV-RALEIGH WV-
RANDOLPH WV-RITCHIE WV-ROANE WV-TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-UPSHUR WV-
VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-WAYNE WV-WEBSTER WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
WYOMING WV-
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.