Tornado and Hail in North Dakota, July 3, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
740 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO PROVINCE TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN PARENT COLD FRONT
WAS EVIDENT VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. APPEARS GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS WAS ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR GRAND FORKS. IN THIS REGION LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING AIDED BY STRONGER CONVERGENCE/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FOR INDUCEMENT OF STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTION AREAL COVERAGE AND
END/TIMING. ONCE AGAIN STORMS TONIGHT BEING AIDED BY DESTABLIZATION
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING WITH TRUE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING.
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCH
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A REDUCTION IN INTENSITY BY DUSK.
ANTICIPATE COLD FROPA...PER MODELS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
CWFA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE IN
THE 50S NORTH OF THE BORDER...PER REVIEW OF CANADIAN OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK...THUS LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF CWFA STILL APPEARS
FEASIBLE DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE
MN...NONE.

&&

BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031500-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FORENOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORENOON ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM THIS FORENOON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FRO THESE STORM WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM 10 AM THROUGH 3 PM. A FEW STORMS MAY
AGAIN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA FROM 4 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG AN INVERTED TROF MOVING THOUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. A SECOND
ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE FORENOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

GUST