Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, August 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 12Z
ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHOW
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THEY DO DIFFER ON MINOR DETAILS AND WILL
UTILIZE ETA FOR SPECIFICS.

TONIGHT...CU LINE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC
TROUGH. CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS NE ND AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL FORMATION SOUTHWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES. DEW POINTS HAVE
RISEN TO NEAR 60 ACROSS FORECAST AREA (FA). RESIDUAL CLOUDS FROM
MORNING SHOWERS STILL LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN FA. HOWEVER...BETWEEN
THESE CLOUDS AND SFC TROUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE
HOURS OF SUNSHINE (HEATING) WHICH ALLOWS CAPES TO REACH
1000-1500J/KG. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250MB JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT DURING MAX
HEATING. WITH GOOD SHEAR AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. THE CURRENT FORECASTED SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
PROPAGATES ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA WITH FA TO BE IN WARM
SECTOR AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF FA
DURING PERIOD. DID ADD A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS NW MN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...30KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. DID NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC-700MB LAYER DRY. PERSISTENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SURFACE TROUGH TO HANG AROUND TUE-WED...BUT WITH LACK
OF MOISTURE FEEL PRECIPITATION THREAT IS MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
MENTION. TEMPERATURES INCREASE INCREMENTALLY EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH SW 500MB FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU NIGHT
AND FRI IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND 500MB TROF
MOVE INTO AREA FOR SAT NIGHT...SO ADDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO E PART OF AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...MOVES IN FOR
MON...SO ADDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN AS WELL. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

TG/NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291430-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD
TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MILES PER HOUR AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN BY MID
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRAMER