Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, August 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

07Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. FURTHER WEST HIGH PRESSURE WAS EVIDENT VICINITY SOUTHERN
SASK PROVINCE INTO MONTANA WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES EVIDENT OVER
EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET RACING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WITH REGION
IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD I.E. ENHANCED (UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE)
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. EXAMINATION OF KMVX RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWFA WEST OF THE VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY VALUES.

SHORT TERM...
EXPECT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WITH FEATURE TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DAY WEARS ON TODAY AS VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND INVERTED TROUGH SHUNT OFF TO THE EAST. NEXT CONVECTIVE
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY. BIG DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH MODELS
WITH NEXT SYSTEM. ETA IS WEAKER AND LESS ROBUST ON QPF VALUES WHILE
GFS ON THE OTHERHAND IS SLOWER AND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM SASK PROVINCE. FOR NOW WILL STICK
WITH CONTINUITY WITH LOW POP THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
A DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO LINE. IN CONTRAST IT APPEARS NORTHERN PORTION
OF CWFA COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
605 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011353-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
605 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY2 WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER IS FORECASTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL HELP TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING
OVER THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AFTER 9PM AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT. ANY SEVERE STORM WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

THE CAUSE FOR ALL THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOM ON THE HORIZON TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

BERG