Flooding in North Carolina, September 8 to 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. REMAINING PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
ADD TO OR CREATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...CALLS TO THE
COUNTIES REVEAL THAT THERE ARE SOME SMALL DAMS THAT ARE BEING
OVERTOPPED AND OTHERS THAT ARE CAUSING THEM CONCERN. MOST OF THESE
ARE IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS. CONSIDERING
THE HISTORIC RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 36
HRS...IF ONE WAS EVER GOING TO KEEP A FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE
THREAT OF DAM FAILURES (AT LEAST SMALLER DAMS) THIS IS IT. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE WATCH UP THROUGH 6 AM THU FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS...THE
NRN MTNS AND FOR BUNCOMBE AND HENDERSON COUNTIES. I MIGHT EXPAND IT
A LITTLE IN SPACE IF WE GET REPORTS FROM OTHER COUNTIES.

THERE IS A SECONDARY LITTLE AREA OF PVA THAT WORKS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING...AND WL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE NC
ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. BASED ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHARP DRYING LINE ALOFT HAS ALREADY WORKED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SW MTNS. HOWEVER...THIS WL MATCH UP A LITTLE WITH THE
FLOOD WATCH AND THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE IN THE NC ZONES ATTM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE WE WON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
TMRW. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS WORK THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
STALL IT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TMRW. THERE MIGHT BE SOMETHING IN OUR
ERN MOST COUNTIES...AND WL RUN A LOW CHANCE POP E OF I77...BUT I
HAVE MY DOUBTS EVEN ABOUT THAT.

FRI/SAT BOTH LOOK LIKE GOOD WEATHER DAYS. WEAK LONG WAVE THAT HAS
HELPED LIFT FRANCES TO OUR NORTH WL SIT IN ONE PLACE AND SLOWLY FILL
BOTH DAYS. FRI DEFINITELY LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS LEADING TO A
FAIRLY COOL MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE MTNS. DWPTS WL RECOVER A
LITTLE ON SAT...BUT WITH NO FORCING TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. BY SUN STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE WEAK ERN CONUS LONG
WAVE...DRIVING A GOOD COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUN NGHT. WL KEEP
SLGT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUN...THOUGH IT WOULD BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE MUCH COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SEVERAL PROBLEMS IN DEALING WITH EXTENDED PACKAGE TODAY.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE TRACK OF IVAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND.  RIGHT NOW I AM IGNORING THIS AS A FACTOR
AND ASSUMING THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE WX
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AGREE WITH NCEP THAT AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES ARE ALL OVERDONE SO
DEPARTED FROM MOS AND KEPT WARMER TEMPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  LOW POPS AS HIGH SHOULD PREVENT ANY FORCING OVER
THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS GRADUALLY RISING AS REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVES WEST OF CWA.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.  POCKETS OF FOG EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE BECAUSE OF HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-049-050-053>056-065>067 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
THE REGION TODAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS STREAMS AND
CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD WATCH UPDATED AT 447
AM. SEVERAL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE AT FLOOD STAGE OR ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL NOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE ISSUED AT 456 AM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY...WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT
7 AM FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TORNADO          2 NE SANDY SPRINGS      34.62N 82.73W
09/07/2004                   ANDERSON           SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGED MAINLY TREES AND ONE LARGE
            SHELTER ALONG ABOUT A HALF MILE TRACK

&&

JONES