Flash Flood in North Carolina, September 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
CENTER OF JEANNE LOCATED BETWEEN MCN AND AGS. BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING N ACROSS UPSTATE SC ...WITH CELLS TRAIING E TO W ALONG BAND.
AS THIS BAND REACHES BLUE RIDGE ESCARMENT...EXPECT RAINFALL RATE TO
INCREASE. REPOPULATED QPF GRIDS WITH NEW HPC DATA...THOUGH MAY BE
TOO LIGHT ON ESCARPMENT. FLOOD WATCH TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUE. WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSINT TO 35 MPH AND THAT WAS BEFORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ARRIVED. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF JEANNE/S CENTER AND TOO WEAK WITH
WIND. CURRENT WINDS GRIDS CLOSE TO GFS...WHICH HAS HAD BEST HISTORY
WITH SYSTEM. SINCE OLD GRIDS HAVE BETTER VELOCITIES THAN MODELS...
WILL STICK WITH THEM. WIND PRODUCTS TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUE. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
RUNNING CLOSE TO 18Z MAV DATA...BUT FORECAST MIN TEMPS ONLY A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW MANY CURRENT TEMPS...SO REDUCED MIN T BY ANOTHER
DEGREE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR MACON GEORGIA...AND CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEAST DRIFT. THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A TRUE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST STATES.
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED W/
JEANNE HAS BEEN W/IN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH TO
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOW AFFECTING
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-26...WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY EAST
OF THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHEAST. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A NOCTURNAL FLARE UP OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...MUCH AS WE
OBSERVED WITH FRANCES AND IVAN. THEREFORE...THE MAJOR FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...AND
IN AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
GFS DEPICTS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MNTNS THIS EVENING...SO EVEN LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS REGARDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE MAINTAINED AS IS.

CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT IS MOVING PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
PER THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS...BUT THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE UNDERNEATH THE HEART OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS MAY ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...ENHANCING
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN CONTINUED.

AS FAR AS WIND...PLAN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT NPW PRODUCTS. EXPECT
ACTUAL SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO VERIFY CONSIDERABLY BELOW WARNING/
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE LOTS OF
DOWNED TREES AND LINES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND
THE MOUNTAINS.

POPS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE REMNANTS...GFS SHOWS POOR CONTINUITY FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH RESPECT TO SHORT WAVE DROPPING THRU GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OH VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUN HAD CLOSED LOW OVER OH VALLEY AT 12Z
WED...WHILE 12Z RUN HAS SHEARING VORT LOBE. AT ANY RATE...APPEARS
THAT SOME ENERGY SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS...AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. SKY FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THIS
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH...THIS SUGGESTS RAISING TEMP FORECASTS A FEW
DEGREES IN THE WED NITE/THU PERIOD AS WELL. PLAN TO KEEP THE FRI
THRU SUN PERIOD DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. THINK
ANY RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY SEEN ON 00Z RUN WITH LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING LATE DAY 7 IS PREMATURE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY
RAIN ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINATE IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR...
LOWERING TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AS WELL WITH KAVL WINDS SLOWER TO INCREASE
DUE TO N-S BASIN/RUNWAY ORIENTATION AND STRONG E FLOW ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM THREAT GREATEST SE OF LINE FROM
KAND-KCLT AND HAVE INCLUDED CB CLDS MOST OF NIGHT FOR ALL SITES
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 CORRIDOR.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
TUESDAY.   ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TUESDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
     082 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 THROUGH TUESDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ004>014-019 THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281024-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
626 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE MOVE NORTHWARD. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR NON-MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM OUR
OFFICE FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAEFFAGSP...WITH THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST
HEADER CAENPWGSP. DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECTS AS JEANNE IS
CONTAINED IN THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR
OFFICE...UNDER PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAESPSGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHICH ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TIMES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-012>014-019-272230-
CABARRUS NC-CHESTER SC-GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-MECKLENBURG NC-
UNION SC-UNION NC-YORK SC-
515 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THIS EVENING...

SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. ACROSS THE AREA FROM GREENWOOD
TO LAURENS AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA... SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME LARGE
TREE LIMBS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

NCZ057-071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-272330-
ABBEVILLE SC-CABARRUS NC-CHESTER SC-GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-
MECKLENBURG NC-ROWAN NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YORK SC-
633 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...

SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABBEVILLE
TO LAURENS AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA... SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME LARGE
TREE LIMBS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

GAZ028-SCZ006>014-019-280030-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREENWOOD SC-HART GA-LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
UNION SC-YORK SC-
734 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING...

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 9 PM. ACROSS THE AREA FROM ANDERSON
TO LAURENS...AND NORTH TO THE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG METRO AREA...AND
EAST TO ROCK HILL AND CHESTER...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD KNOCK
DOWN SOME LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE  AREA FROM GREENWOOD TO LAURENS AND CHESTER.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>010-012>014-280130-
ANDERSON SC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-FRANKLIN GA-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-HART GA-LAURENS SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-UNION SC-YORK SC-
834 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE EVENING...

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 10 PM. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AS THE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
CLEMSON TO FOUNTAIN INN AND CLINTON...NORTH TO THE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG METRO AREA...AND EAST TO ROCK HILL AND CHESTER. WIND
GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME LARGE TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE  AREA FROM
LAURENS TO CHESTER AND ROCK HILL.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

SCZ005>009-013-014-280230-
CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-UNION SC-YORK SC-
931 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSTATE AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AS THE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM PICKENS TO GREENVILLE...UNION...AND CHESTER...NORTH TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD KNOCK
DOWN SOME LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF GAFFNEY
AND UNION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE