Damaging Wind and Lightning Strike in North Carolina, May 26, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
723 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE ZFP FOR SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 301 AND TO INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NC.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MOVEMENT OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY HAS TAKEN ON
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS
STRONGEST COLD POOL INTERACTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO OCCUR ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE COMPLEX...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH MCS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BETWEEN 6 AND 630
PM. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AND INCLUDE
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 296 FROM MADISON COUNTY NORTH. WILL ALSO
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC MNTNS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND MENTION SEVERE POSSIBILITIES IN THOSE
ZONES.

ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN FLAT UPPER RIDGE IN GULF OF
MEXICO AND BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. NUMEROUS IMPULSES TO
CROSS AREA IN FAST FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARRIVE 12Z THU
AND 12Z SAT. TIME SECTIONS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE OR VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT AREA MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WITH BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING S...WILL CARRY POPS MUCH OF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

CONVECTION IN KY THIS AFTERNOON TAKING TURN TO SE...AND EVENING POPS
WILL FAVOR NW PORTION OF AREA. BEST POPS LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF AN IMPULSE...STARTING IN NC MOUNTAINS...AND
FAVORING N TIER BY MORNING. BY THU EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY S. FRI POPS TIMED FOR A MODEST IMPULSE IN
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN NC MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE BEST. SAME FOR SAT
MORNING WITH NEXT IMPULSE...THOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THAT TIME
WILL OFFSET BETTER STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH
UPPER SYSTEMS AND APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HELD
UP BY CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

SUN-WED...EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED TO START WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWFA. 12 UTC GFS IS NOT AS FAR S W/THE
FRONT AS WAS THE 00 UTC RUN. LAST NGHTS ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE TWO. HPC HAS THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG AN AVL TO CLT LINE SUN
MORNING...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INHERITED POPS ONLY IN
THE MTNS SUN. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...HARD TO KNOW HOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WL BE BY
AFTN...AND WL STICK TO CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE 12 UTC GFS HAS A STRONG H5 TROF EJECTING ACROSS THE MID WEST MON
MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA
IN THE AFTN. OLDER GFS AND THE ECMWF DO NOT HAVE AS SHARP A TROF AND
THEY DRIVE A WEAKER FRONT MORE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WL FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION AND WL CARRY CHANCE POPS BOTH MON AND TUE...BUT NOTHING
HIGHER ATTM. HPC CONTINUES CHANCE POPS ON WED THOUGH THEY HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY 12 UTC WED. WL FAVOR THE EARLIER RUNS
WHICH CUT OFF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROF AND DRIFT IT N EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SFC FRONT WL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING E OF
THE CWFA AND WL KEEP SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS ON WED.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-270959-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
601 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
THE SIZE OF PENNIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPSGSP
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE LENOIR             36.00N 81.42W
05/26/2004                   CALDWELL           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR KINGS CREEK

&&

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
712 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWLAND                 36.09N 81.93W
05/26/2004                   AVERY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN COUNTYWIDE

&&

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELLENDALE               35.93N 81.28W
05/26/2004                   ALEXANDER          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. ROOF TORN OFF HOUSE NEAR ELLENDALE.

&&

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAYLORSVILLE            35.92N 81.18W
05/26/2004                   ALEXANDER          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN TAYLORSVILLE...ONE ON AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FARMINGTON              36.01N 80.53W
05/26/2004                   DAVIE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
819 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.80N 82.68W
05/26/2004                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN IN MARSHALL AND HOT SPRINGS. POWER
            OUTAGES REPORTED IN PARTS OF MARS HILL.

&&

LANE