Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 26, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.UPDATE...
MOVEMENT OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY HAS TAKEN ON
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS
STRONGEST COLD POOL INTERACTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO OCCUR ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE COMPLEX...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH MCS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BETWEEN 6 AND 630
PM. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AND INCLUDE
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 296 FROM MADISON COUNTY NORTH. WILL ALSO
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC MNTNS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND MENTION SEVERE POSSIBILITIES IN THOSE
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN FLAT UPPER RIDGE IN GULF OF
MEXICO AND BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. NUMEROUS IMPULSES TO
CROSS AREA IN FAST FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARRIVE 12Z THU
AND 12Z SAT. TIME SECTIONS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE OR VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT AREA MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WITH BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING S...WILL CARRY POPS MUCH OF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

CONVECTION IN KY THIS AFTERNOON TAKING TURN TO SE...AND EVENING POPS
WILL FAVOR NW PORTION OF AREA. BEST POPS LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF AN IMPULSE...STARTING IN NC MOUNTAINS...AND
FAVORING N TIER BY MORNING. BY THU EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY S. FRI POPS TIMED FOR A MODEST IMPULSE IN
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN NC MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE BEST. SAME FOR SAT
MORNING WITH NEXT IMPULSE...THOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THAT TIME
WILL OFFSET BETTER STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH
UPPER SYSTEMS AND APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HELD
UP BY CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

SUN-WED...EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED TO START WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWFA. 12 UTC GFS IS NOT AS FAR S W/THE
FRONT AS WAS THE 00 UTC RUN. LAST NGHTS ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE TWO. HPC HAS THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG AN AVL TO CLT LINE SUN
MORNING...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INHERITED POPS ONLY IN
THE MTNS SUN. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...HARD TO KNOW HOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WL BE BY
AFTN...AND WL STICK TO CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE 12 UTC GFS HAS A STRONG H5 TROF EJECTING ACROSS THE MID WEST MON
MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA
IN THE AFTN. OLDER GFS AND THE ECMWF DO NOT HAVE AS SHARP A TROF AND
THEY DRIVE A WEAKER FRONT MORE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WL FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION AND WL CARRY CHANCE POPS BOTH MON AND TUE...BUT NOTHING
HIGHER ATTM. HPC CONTINUES CHANCE POPS ON WED THOUGH THEY HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY 12 UTC WED. WL FAVOR THE EARLIER RUNS
WHICH CUT OFF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROF AND DRIFT IT N EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SFC FRONT WL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING E OF
THE CWFA AND WL KEEP SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS ON WED.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-270959-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
601 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
THE SIZE OF PENNIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPSGSP
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

NCZ033>037-048>059-062>069-270200-
ALEXANDER NC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-GRAHAM NC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-
LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL NC-MITCHELL NC-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-POLK NC-ROWAN NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
528 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
REACHING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM MADISON
COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CURRENT WATCH. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

LANE