Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NC MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NRN GA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CWA TONIGHT.  LATEST ETA12 SHOWS NEAR 2000
BULLS EYE MOVING ACROSS NC FOOTHILLS INTO CHARLOTTE METRO BY 00Z.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT. SPC HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK SVR FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THINGS DRY OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS ON RETURN OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.  RIGHT NOW KEEPING THOSE TWO DAYS FAIRLY DRY...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOWS RETURN TO AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPS. ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A GOOD IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
ON SATURDAY...THEN A LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  STILL KEEPING A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...JUST WITH MUCH
LOWER POPS.

TEMPS ARE NEAR SEASONAL.  MOS TEMPS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMP FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALLOWING CUMULUS FIELD
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
NC MOUNTAINS AS OF 17Z...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. IMMEDIATE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE AT AVL. WILL HANDLE OTHER TAF SITES WITH VCTS UNTIL
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN. MOST AT RISK E OF MOUNTAINS WILL BE HKY
BASED ON MOVEMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE IN
MID EVENING FROM W TO E WITH MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE...THEN DEBRIS
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z-08Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHERE IT RAINS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP...
BUT ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL END OF TAF PERIOD
AT SITES OTHER THAN AVL...WHERE VCTS WILL BE FORECAST AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  69  85  67  87 /  50  70  50  20
AND  69  85  67  87 /  50  70  50  20
CLT  68  85  64  87 /  40  60  50  20
HKY  66  84  63  86 /  50  60  50  20
AVL  63  80  60  84 /  50  70  50  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

PM/VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-230936-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
543 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTOMRS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-222200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN IN RECENT
DAYS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL RESULT
IN GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. BY THIS EVENING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

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