Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS SE USA THROUGH WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ALONG EAST COAST BY SUN NIGHT.
MOISTURE NOW S OF AREA TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THEN SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER RIDGE...SUCH THAT BY SUN BEST MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS N
TIER OF AREA. ETA PLAYING UP OMEGA WITH VERY WEAK IMPULSES SAT AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE SUN NIGHT. WITH ETA SHOWING ONLY WEAK IMPULSE
SAT...WILL RAISE POP ONLY TO SMALL CHANCE...FAVORING MOUNTAINS WHERE
BEST MOISTRUE WILL BE. MAINTAINING DIURNAL TREND...WILL CARRY SMALL
CHANCE POP SUN/MON AS MOISTURE MIGRATES E ALONG I-40 CORRIDOR THEN
DOWN I-77 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WARMEST SAT...THEN GRADUALLY FALL AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES AWAY TOWARD W. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIMITED BY
MOISTURE IN HUMID SUMMER AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS E OF REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE CWA
AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY N AND E OF THE AREA. LIGHT W TO NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH LOWS NEAR
70. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SCT AFTN-EVE
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH HI PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT...VERY WEAK FORCING AT 500MB WAS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MODELS TO THE S. ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE WITH HEATING AS AREA BECOMES SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND CB CLOUD TYPE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SC TAFS...ALSO
AT AVL DUE TO LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMP OVER THE MTNS. HKY AND CLT ARE
CAPPED DUE TO DRYER AIR AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. PATCHY MVFR
FOG OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND THE SAME IS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SAT. WILL NOT PUT FOG IN TAFS ATTM BUT IF RAIN OCCURS NEAR AN
AIRFIELD...EARLY AM FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-100939-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
540 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MOST DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE