Hail in North Carolina, August 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO CLEAR COUNTIES FORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

CLEARING NW PIEDMONT AND N FOOTHILLS FROM WATCH AS COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO REGION.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOLDING
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 02Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE I-77 AND TN LINE MID
EVENING AS CONECTIVE BAND EXITS AND MOIST NW FLOW SETS UP IN MTS.
TIGHT GRADIENT TO KEEP WIND UP THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DRYING LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUN. COLD ADVECTION TO
OVERWHELM DOWNSLOPE FRI...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT IN CONTINUED N FLOW. SAT ABOUT AS
COOL AS FRI AS BOTH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE END. RADIATIONAL
COOLING SAT NIGHT FAVORS NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER SOMEWHAT SUN...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...AND WITH DEW POINTS
RISING THOUGH STILL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO AMPLY AGAIN ON MON AS ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
ERN CONUS LONG WAVE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING TROF...WHICH WL HELP TO HOLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THE HIGH WL MODIFY CONSIDERABLY FROM IT/S CONTINENTAL POLAR
ORIGINS...BECOMING ESSENTIALLY THE BERMUDA HIGH BY MON. SOME
QUESTION OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE GFS. WL FOLLOW GFS TIMING AS THIS IS FAVORED BY HPC.
THEREFORE WL REMOVE POPS TUE...AND ADD THEM FOR WED. WL GO DRY THU
AS AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THE FRONT WELL THROUGH THE
CWFA BY THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE CARRIED TEMPO TSRA FOR THE UPSTATE TAF SITES AND CLT THROUGH 20
AND 21 UTC RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN A LITTLE OVER
THIS AREA THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED THICK CLOUD COVER MOVING IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST...THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WON/T EXTEND MUCH BEYOND 21
UTC. THERE IS A LITTLE STRATIFORM PCPN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A COUPLE HRS OF SHRA AT AVL AND HKY.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
REGION AND WE SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A MORNING FREE OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029 UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
NC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ038-068>072-082
     UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019
     UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-060930-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
535 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

NCZ035>037-056-057-052001-
ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-ROWAN NC-
307 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...ALEXANDER...CATAWBA...DAVIE...IREDELL AND ROWAN COUNTIES CLEARED
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ALEXANDER...CATAWBA...DAVIE...IREDELL AND ROWAN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARED FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH REMAINS VALID
UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

07