Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 11, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SFC FRONT CONTINUES HEADING SE TOWARD NC MTNS WHILE UPPER TROF
DEEPENS ALONG AND E OF MS VALLEY. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION EXPANDING
FROM MTNS THIS AFTN TO REST OF CWA OVERNIGHT AND THU MRNG. FCST
TRACK OF TS BONNIE BEING ADJUSTED WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. ATTM IT STILL APPEARS THAT BONNIE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG FL PANHANDLE VCNTY PANAMA CITY BEFORE NOON
THU...TRACK NE TOWARD AUGUSTA THU EVE...THEN MOVE ON TOWARD
GREENSBORO FRI MORNING. HEAVY RAIN BAND WAS EXPECTED TO STAY S AND E
OF TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN OUT OF CWA. HOWEVER...GOOD
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF BONNIE WILL BRING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY POPS TO CWA THU AFTN-EVE INTO FRI MRNG. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE. ONCE BONNIE MOVES NE
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK...BUT CHARLEY FSCT TO BE APPROACHING SC
COAST FROM FL ON FRI. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK IT
ULTIMATELY TAKES. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER SE ZONES THRU SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLEY MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY. GFS
PLACES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC REGION BY TUE AM.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE
EARLY WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO SCHC EXCEPT FOR MTN POPS
ON TUE. A STRONG H5 S/W ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON WITH LIS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO -4 TO -6 C. WILL BLANKET THE FA WITH CHC POPS WITH FAVOR
GIVEN TO THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF HPC AND MEX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE WILL INCREASE THE LEVELS
OF MOISTURE OVER THE FA THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL PERIOD. A LINE OF
SH/TS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILL
AREAS. LAPS CAPES SHOW INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MTNS AND WILL EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL HANDLE WITH MTN TEMPOS AND CB/S ELSEWHERE. FRONTAL
SH/TS SHOULD WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. BL WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS
FROM BONNIE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST AFTER
12Z. BY MID MORNING WILL TREND FROM VCSH TO CATE SH AND WILL MENTION
TS AT KAVL AND KAND.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING.
NC...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING.
SC...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-120947-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
548 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...AND BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
TROPICAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA. PIEDMONT LOCATIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...AND FROM CHESTER TO ELBERTON GEORGIA...WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
TODAY AND TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THE REGIONAL IMPACT FROM THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HG