Hail and Damaging Wind in New York, May 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS OVER NEW
YORK STATE...BUT DEWPOINTS OVER OHIO AND MICHIGAN HAVE SURGED INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. RIGHT NOW...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS DEVELOPING IN THE NARROW THETA-E RIDGE THAT LIES
OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NIP LAKE
ONTARIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WHEN THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. WE ARE STILL MONITORING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WHERE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL CAP BREAKS. IF STRONG CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA...IT MAY ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND PARTS OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING WILL
STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FA AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL BRING US DRY WEATHER WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY WILL FORCE THE FRONT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IS ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS AT MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY THOUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CIRRUS AND AC CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS BY 21Z WITH
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING KBUF-KIAG AND KART
AROUND 01Z AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 04Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR IN ANY STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE
UNTIL ABOUT 13Z FRIDAY...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDINESS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

BUF...NONE.

PUBLIC...TJP
AVIATION...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
454 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-061046-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
454 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY TONIGHT.  THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT.  THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE WILL BE FROM DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

SAGE