Damaging Winds in New York, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CONVECTION HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY FIRING UP ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
DESPITE GREAT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS (2500 CAPES AND -6 LIS WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CIN). GOOD CU FIELD BUT ALSO TYPICAL LAKE SHADOW FROM
BUF TO ABOUT ROC. ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO POP ALONG OUTFLOW FROM THIS
LK BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM CATT CO TO MID GENESEE VALLEY ATTM AND STILL
CAN SEE THREAT OF SVR WX FOR NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM THAT AREA
EASTWARD. DEW PTS DROPPING NR LK ERIE THOUGH AS FRONTAL TROF TRIES
TO SWING THROUGH SO THREAT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER FAR WEST. WOULD
EXPECT WATCH TO BE SHAVED IN FAR WEST SOON...AND EXPIRES AT 5 PM
ANYWAY.

ON TO REST OF FORECAST...COLD FRONT EASES ACROSS REGION THIS
EVENING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY DECK OF LOW CLOUD. MODELS SPIT OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES SO WILL
INCLUDE A 30 POP ALL ZONES TONIGHT. TUES WILL BE A TOUGH FORECAST
DAY AS ALL AREAS SHOULD START OUT WITH LOW CLOUD BUT DECENT BUBBLE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE. GFS AND MOS
SCATTER US OUT BUT ETA ON BUFKIT KEEPS LOW CLOUDS IN ALL DAY. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF CLEARING IN AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS SFC FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO EAST. TEMPS DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD...850S SOAR TO +13 IN WEST LATE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 80...BUT
WE WONT BREAK 60S IN WE STAY IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW WILL BLEND FROM U60S
EAST TO M70S WEST.

ENJOY THE DRY DAY THOUGH AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY LATER IN
DAY AND TUES NT. ETA STARTS SHOWERS NEAR 8 PM TUES FAR WEST..GFS A
FEW HOURS SOONER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN DAY TO
RESTRICT MENTION TO TUES EVE AND NIGHT. MODELS HANDLE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROF DIFFERENTLY...ETA BRINGS LOW RIGHT ACROSS WNY WITH GOOD
WARM FRONTAL GRADIENT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HEAVY QPF...GFS
REDEVELOPS LOW TO SOUTH WITH MINOR QPF HERE. FOR NOW LIKELY POPS
WILL DO.

NEAR ETERNAL FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WED AND
THURS AS WEAK UPPER TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHEAST. SOME
INSTABILITY SO WILL GO WITH 30 POP WED AND 20 POPS THURS. TEMPS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL.

EXTENDED...NEXT FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...CHC POPS ALL AREAS. ALL SIGNS
POINT TO A FINE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SATURDAY WITH
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS...BUT LATEST MODELS TRENDING FRONT
FURTHER NORTH A BIT SOONER LATER IN WEEKEND SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE
CHC POPS FOR SUN AND MON ALONG WITH SEASONABLE (50/70) TEMPS.

HYDROWISE...VAST MAJORITY OF REGION HAS GOTTEN A BREAK SINCE THE
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WARM WINDS
AIDING EVAPORATION. BUF AREA CREEKS RUNNING VERY HIGH BUT ALL APPEAR
TO BE CRESTING A FOOT OR TWO BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ONLY POINT OF
CONCERN IS BEMUS POINT ON CHAUTAUQUA LAKE WHICH IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON SCHED AT 4 PM. 48 HOUR RAINFALL
WAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF WRN NY IN THESE REPEATED
OVERNIGHT DELUGES.

AVIATION...ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5
PM ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR OVER MOST AREAS BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF
BUFFALO.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT THE SURFACE IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF BY THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY BY MID DAY TUESDAY.

.BUF...NONE. (FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED 4 PM)

MCLAUGHLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-241031-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
430 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM, MOIST AIR
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS WHICH WILL FALL ONTO ALREAD SATURATED GROUND. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

LEVAN