Flash Flood and Hail in New York, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
410 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WED NIGHT
RUNNING LATE IN ANTICIPATION OF NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH JUST RE-ISSUED
THROUGH 01Z FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NJ.
BACK DOOR FRONT HOLDING IN PLACE FROM WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY SE TO
JUST WEST OF MIDTOWN MANHATTAN AT 19Z (72 AT NYC WHILE 82 AT TEB).
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WHICH BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL PA WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA TO UNTIL COLD FRONT BACK OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AND WESTERN PA MAKES IT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ETA SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING IN BENEATH LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ON NE
FLOW INTO FAR EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE CT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE
QUIET WX ON TUE...WITH NW-W FLOW...FAIR WX CU AND COOLER TEMPS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...MOSTLY FOLLOWED ETA SOLUTION WITH GFS APPARENTLY SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. IN ANY CASE A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.LONG TERM...FINE WX IN STORE FOR THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN
SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...PRECIP H20 RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES. ANY TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP ABOUT THAT MUCH IN AN HOUR...BUT FAST
STORM MOTION AROUND 35 KT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD. FIRST...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL THE CHANCE FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WOULD ONLY COVER KSWF. FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT BEFORE SUNSET...WITH A
FEW CELLS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SECOND...THE WINDS HAVE
YET TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BETWEEN INLAND NEW JERSEY...AND NYC...ISLAND AND THE LOCAL
WATERS...MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF UNTIL THE
THERMAL GRADIENT SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. FINALLY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT HAS YET TO BURN OFF ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
THAT THE WINDS WILL NOT TURN SOUTHWEST...WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD
KEEPING THE STRATUS INTACT ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH FOG HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO HIGH END
MVFR OR VFR...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CREEP BACK DOWN TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN COASTAL
ZONE AS SEAS HAVE ACTUALLY COME DOWN A TAD THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH WE
MAY SEE A BRIEF 5 FOOT REPORT OVERNIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
WARRANTS THE ADVISORY. NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY APPEARS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO PROBLEMS FORESEEN WITH REGARD TO THE WINDS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...NJZ002>005-011.
NY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...NYZ067>071.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

GOODMAN/JK/PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
521 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-251030-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
521 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK CITY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL MOVE
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25 MPH. SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN SOUTH OF
MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
103 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ005-241745-
NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD-
103 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 103 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SHERMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF
FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
350 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ067-242030-
NORTHEASTERN ORANGE-
350 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALDEN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
BASED ON THIS MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY
OF...ORANGE LAKE...GARDNERTOWN AROUND 355 PM...
MIDDLE HOPE...BALMVILLE AROUND 400 PM. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM. POSSIBLE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.