Flash Flooding and Hail in New York, May 22 to 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO NEAR A
BINGHAMTON TO BUFFALO LINE. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASED HEATING. LAPS DATA SHOWING
CAPES TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z AND EVEN WORK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH. FRONT PROBABLY NOT
GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN A ROCHESTER TO SYRACUSE LINE BEFORE
00Z.

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
SHORT WAVE.

MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FRONT APPEARS TO HANG ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY KEEPING THE
BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN ACROSS THAT AREA...WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVING A THREAT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYING TREND...BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
FRONT WILL LINGER AND OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.

.BUF...NONE

PUBLIC...TMA
AVIATION...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
458 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221055-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
458 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

JJP