Rip Current in New York, July 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
303 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BASICALLY GOES LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THAN SMOOTHES OUT TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE REGION TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY OR SO WEDNESDAY.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST...THEN DIE THINGS OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STILL PLAN ON
KEEPING OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NOT LOOKING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA CUTOFFS UPPER LOW OFF NORTH
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS CUTOFF HANGS AROUND
WHILE WELL TO THE WEST A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. VERY SLOW MOVER AND THUS WHEN TO INTRODUCE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION A BIT HARD TO PIN DOWN. WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...THIS MAINLY INSTABILITY AND
HEATING INDUCE CONVECTION...OTHERWISE FOR THE TIME BEING WILL JUST
GRADUALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE PROBABLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY A TOUGH CALL AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH BUT EVER SO SLOWLY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP MENTION
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ALTHOUGH DOWN TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALSO KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NOT REAL GOOD TO
DRY OUT THE AIR. NEXT PROBLEM ARISES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THAT CUTOFF DOWN SOUTH PHASES AND BEGINS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL KEEP A MOISTURE LADEN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS REGION EARLY ON THIS PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
SWINGING FLOW AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TUESDAY. AS SUCH WILL
ALSO KEEP A MINIMAL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THIS SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON JUST HOW THINGS LINE UP FOR DAY
6 AND 7. THIS CHANGE COULD GO EITHER WAY...FOR THE BETTER OR
WORSE...SO BELIEVE IT BEST TO JUST STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE
MINIMAL CHANCE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOOKING AT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING AND MAINLY
AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCATION. COULD SEE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR BUT NOTHING
THAT WOULD PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. QUARTER INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FOR ONE
CAVEAT...IF CI ENDS UP A BIT THICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN
FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT.  HAVE GONE FOR JUST
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN LAST NIGHTS CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 WERE STILL BEING MEASURED AT 5 AND 6
FT RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z. BASED ON PAST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A
SHORT RANGE FORECAST...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS WILL BE CONTINUED EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...BUT DROPPED FROM SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY WHEN A WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS...ANZ350-353.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-210930-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.