Flood in New York, July 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN HAVE FIRED THIS AFTERNOON IN
CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG. OVERALL MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST,
BUT SEVERAL HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY FOR AN HOUR OR MORE WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES/HR RAINFALL RATES. AS CIRRUS SHIELD
MOVED IN FROM SOUTH...TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TO STAY WITH BETTER SURFACE HEATING.

PERSISTENT EASTERN US TROUGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH WESTERN US RIDGE. 500 MB CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PA. THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP
AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE NJ COAST
TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

STILL CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AGAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS DIMINISHED. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE TO SOUTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW...AND CAPES ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL BE 500 J/KG OR
LESS.

FOR TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AREA IN NW FLOW AND
DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY..AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH ETA MOS THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS MOS HAD MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY...AND WITH CLDS AND PRECIP AROUND THINKING
IT SHOUD BE COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD ON TAP AS MEAN EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS PERSISTS INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY TEMPS MAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MAIN FOCUS OF WX
SHOULD COME IN TWO STAGES. FIRST EVENT OCCURS THU NT INTO FRI AS
POLAR FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES AREA. BRIEF WARM CONDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TO ENHANCE CHCS FOR CONVECTION...AND CURRENT MENTION OF
THUNDER STILL APPEARS REASONABLE HERE. BY FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SFC FRONT SLOWS AND MOST LIKELY STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA ALONG NEW
ENGLAND SEABOARD...THEN RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS STRONG SE FLOW
COMMENCES AHEAD OF STRONG SFC WAVE. THUS CHC POPS HERE REMAIN
REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH
SCT CONVECTION AND ASSOC IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY BR/FG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MTN LOCALES LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. THEN
EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS LARGER
RAIN SHIELD ADVANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA UNDER LT WIND REGIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

NYZ035-VTZ009-181842-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN ADDISON-
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

AT 140 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN ADDISON AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES... AND
THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.  AREAS FROM CROWN POINT TO
CHIMNEY POINT TO WEST ADDISON WILL EXPERIENCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT
THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...POSSIBLE PEA SIZED HAIL... AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH THROUGH 245 PM. MARINERS ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO...
OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED
FORECASTS.

JMG