Damaging Wind in New York, July 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
305 PM SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
STORMS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND DIE OFF RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET.  OTHERWISE...THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER OHIO.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH ETA AND GFS
TO VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN IT EVENTUALLY
SHEARS INTO THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.  WILL SLOWLY RAISE POPS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...LEAVING IT DRY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ON
SUNDAY BOTH MODELS ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK. OMEGA FIELD SHOWS LARGE AREA OF LIFT COVERING THE AREA. FEEL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.  ON MONDAY SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMICS DEPICTED BY THE OMEGA FIELD
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA... EXPECT BACKWASH FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY PATTERN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG RANGE (TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY)...

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERY PRECIP
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OF TUES THROUGH
THUR. GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA ON TUESDAY AS THE AXIS OF TROUGH AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE OVER NY.

SMALLER TROUGH WILL FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MUCH
LARGER WAVE DIGS SOUTH AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY
BUT THE FRONT STALLS ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND VORTICITY REMAINING WESTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL SET UP A WET PATTERN FOR THE ENTIRE
EAST COAST AND MAY REACH WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY AS
WAVES MOVE NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION (UPDATED)...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY OVER
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AND COLLAPSE
BEFORE SUNSET THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OHIO ON SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING/REFORMING FROM SERN OH TO DELMARVA THEN UP THE
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HALVES OF NY STATE BY 18Z. MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-171042-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
443 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/