Funnel Cloud in New York, July 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATE SHORTLY WITH A FEW MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FCST CURRENT.
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX AS IT DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THIS PM.
AREA OF ORGANIZED SHWRS STILL AFFECTING NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF FA
ATTM. IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF BORDER BY EARLY PM. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER SRN AREAS...MAINLY WEST OF GREEN MTNS. MORE SHWRS
ON BACKSIDE OF LOW ACRS WRN HALF OF NYS. EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN THIS PM...AND FOR RETURN OF SHWRS AND PSBL
TSRA. GOING TEMP FCST OF L-M 70S LOOKS OK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 307 AM...

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED MID/UPPER LVL LOW NEAR
BUF THIS MORNING WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR FA. ALSO...NOTED WAS
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ACRS
WESTERN NY/PA MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM. WITH PLENTY OF JET
STREAM ENERGY AND 5H VORTS DIGGING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM AND
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH RIDGE ACRS WESTERN ATLANTIC...WL KEEP AREA
UNDER INFLUENCE OF ULVL LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF PRECIP WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN ULVL FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS CPV AND
SOUTHERN VT ATTM...SLOWLY ROTATING NE TOWARD BTV AND POINTS NORTH.
MEANWHILE...MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH VORT AND ULVL ARE LOCATED
OVER LK ONTARIO WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. SFC ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW PRES NEAR ROC THIS MORNING WITH TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN NY BACK INTO THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS FROM WESTERN NY THIS MORNING
INTO NORTHERN NY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM NEAR LK ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH TRAILING SFC
TROUGH MOVING THRU OUR FA. THIS FRNT COMBINED WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
5H VORT WL KEEP FA UNSETTLED FOR THRU THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BEST
MID LVL LIFT AND ULVL DIVERGENCE MOVES ACRS OUR FA THIS MORNING...
WITH LIMITED FORCING OVER CWA THIS AFTN. THEREFORE...WL MENTION
OCCASIONAL -RW THIS MORNING WITH CHC POPS THIS AFTN. PROGGED
MOISTURE PROFILES AND BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMP PROFILE SHOWS HIGHS
IN THE 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...FA STILL UNDER
INFLUENCE OF ULVL...BUT LIMITED FORCING IS ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S. GIVEN...
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FG WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. FRIDAY...WEAK SFC FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES SLV AROUND 12Z AND CPV BY 18Z. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AND MENTION CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN ZNS.
THE AMOUNT OF LLVL INSTABILITY WL DEPEND UPON SFC HEATING FROM BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SHEAR PARAMETERS AND CAPE VALUES
SUPPORT WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CELLS. TEMPS WITH A FEW BREAKS WL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-MONDAY)...
MODELS START HAVING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED
POSITION/STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SE CONUS. ETA IS STRONGER AND QUICKER WITH CUTOFF OF
SYSTEM ACRS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC LOW PRES OVER
NORTHERN KY. MEANWHILE...GFS DIGS S/W ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH AND
KEEPS THE TROF OPEN ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS
SHOW SEVERAL STRONG 5H VORTS ROTATING THRU THE TROF AND HELPING
TO ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE SE CONUS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC TROF ACRS OUR FA AND
KEEP SUNDAY DRY ATTM. FEEL BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF
FCST AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TIME
PERIOD...FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE WEEKEND. TROF CONTS ACRS
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SFC FRNT AND 5H VORT CROSSING
FA. GFS SHOWS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THEREFORE WL KEEP FCST DRY AND MENTION TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z THUR-06Z FRI)...
CLOSED UPPER LOW TO BE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY...AND THEN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE GREEN MTS IN VERMONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TODAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH