Flash Flood in New York, July 14, 2004

Name: Flash Flood in New York, July 14, 2004
Start: 2004-07-14T11:45
End: 2004-07-14T13:45
Location: New York

July 14, 2004 · NWS BGM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $10,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 1:50 AM EST, 9 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 1:50 AM EST, 9 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG PICTURE...NRN HEMISPHERE 500 MB PATTERN HAS A BIT OF A COLD
SEASON LOOK TO IT...AS WELL AS A +PNA SKEW...WITH COLD CORE LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY AND A GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER ERN NOAM.  MED-LONG RANGE
MODELS INICATING THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI)...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENTLY WATCHING MCS MOVING OUT OF MICHIGAN AND
INTO LONDON PLAIN.  SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT 500 MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER UP OF MICHIGAN.  THIS WAVE WILL
CRASH INTO DWONSTREAM 500 MB RIDGE...AND SHOULD WEAKEN....BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SO THAT THAT MCS DISINTEGRATES...BUT ENOUGH
WEAKEN SHOULD OCCUR THAT IT BECOMES A WEAK CLUSTER OF SHRA...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA.  BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...MOST
SIGNIFINGANT PART OF SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF CWA...AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM SHOULD  REACH WRN ZONES AROUND 09Z.  MODELS
SUGGESTING CLOSED LOW TIGHTENS UP AND ACTUALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF A
BRIEF NEG TILT OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  MODELS ALSO INDICATING A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING OVER CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE HARD NOT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  IF THIS WERE
NOVEMBER...THE DECISION TO THROW CAT POPS OUT THERE WOULD BE
EASY...BUT IN JULY ITS MORE ABOUT CONVECTION AND THUS COVERAGE...SO
WILL GO LKLY...AS THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME AREAS THAT SEE NO
RAIN.  OTHER ISSUE IS OF COURSE HEAVY RAIN...CLOSED SYSTEMS IN JULY
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT IT WOULD
BE JUST THAT...LOCALIZED...AND TOO HARD TO PINPOINT TO ISSUE ANY
FLAGS.  WILL CONT THE LKLY TONIGHT...DON/T REALLY EXPECT ANY CHANGES
TO OCCUR...EXCEPT THAT LOSS OF HEATING MAY REDUCE COVERAGE...AND JET
STRUCTURE BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE...WITH WEAKENING UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE.

THU-FRI...CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST AND FILL DURING THIS
PERIOD.  MOST OF CWA WILL BE ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS...BUT WAVES
WILL BE ROTATING AROUND SYTEM...SO WILL GO WITH CHC POPS...AND WILL
WAIT FOR LATER PERIODS TO FINE TUNE TIMING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SLOW IMPRVMT THEN BEGINS AS DRIER AIR MVES IN ARND THE BASE OF THE
LOW AND THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FRI NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LARGER
SCALE TROUGH PATTERN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONE BROKEN LINE OF TSRA MOVING ACROSS SRN TIER/NE PA AND COULD
EFFECT KAVP NEXT HOUR OR SO.  MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE REMNANTS OF
MCS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE ERIE/SW ONT...WHICH SHOULD HIT
KELM/KITH/KSYR BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z.  IN GENERAL CIGS WILL IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH VISBYS COULD DROP IN BR.  VFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH TEMP IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

CEMPA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 2:53 AM EST, 8 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141030-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
353 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.  ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TO COULD PRODUCE FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

MJC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 8:45 AM EST, 3 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

NYZ018-141445-
ONONDAGA NY-
945 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA...

AT 943 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE WESTERN BORDER OF ONONDAGA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CAMILLUS AND BALDWINSVILLE AT 950 AM.
VILLAGE GREEN AND VESPER AT 955 AM.
TAUNTON AND LAKELAND AT 1000 AM.
WESTVALE AND SOLVAY AT 1005 AM.
SYRACUSE...TULLY AND BREWERTON AT 1010 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN
ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

VAN AUSDALL

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 8:46 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
946 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

NYZ023>025-055-141445-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...

AT 946 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...NEAR ELMIRA....OR ABOUT
OVER ERIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...SWARTWOOD AND VAN ETTEN AT
955 AM...EAST STEAMBURG AT 1000 AM...NORTH SPENCER AND SPENCER AT
1005 AM...WEST DANBY AND WEST CANDOR AT 1010 AM...SOUTH DANBY AND
DANBY AT 1015 AM...WILLSEYVILLE AT 1020 AM.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.  LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR
DRIVING VISIBILITIES.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN
ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

RAM

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:45 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Steuben

When: July 14, 11:45 AM EST to 1:45 PM EST
Where: Steuben County, Addison
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER
Coordinates: 42.268, -77.384 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy rain on wet ground caused flash flooding in the town of Addison. Two roads were washed out. The Baptist church at Main and Front Streets was sandbagged to keep the water out. Water got into the first floor before the sandbagging began. 3 to 4 inches of rain fell in 24 hours.

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in New York in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in New York, July 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5415825.