Hail and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, June 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
230 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY
BUT TO THIS POINT DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LAPS CAPE WHICH IS LESS IN THE EAST TODAY...BUT IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...SOUNDING SUPPORT DOWNBURST
TYPE GUSTY WINDS. A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS ARE FORECAST WEST OF
THE DIVIDE...SO MORE FIRES COULD IGNITE. IN THE EAST...BEST FOCUS
WILL BE NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS ENTERING NE NM ATTM. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLD GUSTY WINDS TO SHIFT SWD DOWN CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND ERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.

FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WITH ADDITION OF
CONVECTION...EXPECT A DECENT SURGE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER
SUNDOWN.

WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE TO THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SHUT OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT REFOCUS THEM WESTWARD. MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
OUT WEST SHOULD DECREASE DRY THUNDER/DOWNBURST POTENTIALS MON
AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THERE. IN THE EAST...THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MORE STABLE BUT EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TRY TO MOVE EAST MON EVE.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO NM
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT THIS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO
A LOW POPS EAST/NO POPS WEST FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 057/087 056/087 056 19122
GALLUP.................... 049/083 048/084 050 19133
GRANTS.................... 053/081 049/082 051 19343
GLENWOOD.................. 055/088 060/086 059 19233
CHAMA..................... 044/073 046/077 046 19355
LOS ALAMOS................ 052/074 050/078 050 19444
RED RIVER................. 038/067 040/069 043 19455
TAOS...................... 048/074 047/079 047 19444
SANTA FE.................. 051/074 050/078 050 19544
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 054/078 053/081 051 19544
ESPANOLA.................. 054/080 054/085 053 19543
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 062/083 062/086 062 19443
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 060/084 063/086 062 19443
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 059/080 059/084 060 19544
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 059/082 061/085 061 19443
SOCORRO................... 059/084 058/085 059 19443
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 048/076 051/078 053 19544
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 050/078 053/081 054 19544
CARRIZOZO................. 057/079 057/081 057 19443
RUIDOSO................... 051/072 053/075 055 19444
RATON..................... 049/073 050/078 051 19644
LAS VEGAS................. 048/071 049/077 051 19644
ROY....................... 054/074 054/080 054 19644
CLAYTON................... 056/074 056/082 057 19544
SANTA ROSA................ 059/080 057/086 058 19644
TUCUMCARI................. 060/080 060/087 061 19634
FORT SUMNER............... 061/081 059/087 061 19634
CLOVIS.................... 060/081 059/085 061 19634
PORTALES.................. 060/081 060/086 061 19634
ROSWELL................... 062/084 062/086 063 19634
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 27 2004

NMZ001>021-026-281200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS EVENING...CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS BELOW CANYONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH...WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 200 PM AND 1000 PM FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER.

46/DPORTER