Hail in New Mexico, June 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 500 IN EFFECT AS OF
THIS WRITING FOR FAR NE NM THROUGH 9 PM. DECENT SFC BOUNDARY SET UP
IN THE VICINITY OF E MORA COUNTY THROUGH HARDING COUNTY INTO PERHAPS
NE QUAY COUNTY...SW WINDS TO SW OF BOUNDARY AND SE TO THE NE OF IT.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL BENEATH MID AND HIGH LEVEL DRYING IN NE
NM SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAK
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONGOING DRYING AND THE POINT IN TIME
WHEN OR IF THE DRYING ALOFT ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
DEGREE THAT IT BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SEVERE INTENSITY
STORMS. BELIEVE THAT IS LARGELY WHAT HAS KEPT NE NM STORMS AS OF
THIS WRITING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SO FAR. STORMS SHOULD END EARLIER
THAN LAST NIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR FAR SE PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...
SO DID ERODE BACK LATE NIGHT LOW POPS ALMOST TO TX LINE. OTHER THAN
THAT MOSTLY JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS GRIDS/TEXT. ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION THOUGH WAS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TUE PM HIGHS MOST OF E
HALF TO 2/3 OF NM FOR TUE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE LESS
CONVECTION MOST OF FORECAST AREA FOR MON WITH EXCEPTION OF ROUGHLY
NE QUARTER. OTHERWISE LOOKING LIKE CONVECTION UPTICK ON TUE CENTRAL
AND W THEN BY WED OR THU SOME DECLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 053/090 055/086 055 43000
GALLUP.................... 043/087 045/084 048 43000
GRANTS.................... 045/088 046/083 047 43000
GLENWOOD.................. 048/094 051/091 053 43000
CHAMA..................... 038/079 041/074 040 43001
LOS ALAMOS................ 046/085 051/078 048 43000
RED RIVER................. 039/070 039/065 040 43112
TAOS...................... 043/083 046/076 043 43002
SANTA FE.................. 049/085 053/077 049 43000
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 050/087 054/080 052 43000
ESPANOLA.................. 046/090 048/082 046 43000
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 062/092 062/085 062 43000
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 055/094 056/086 056 43000
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 059/090 060/083 059 43000
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 061/094 062/085 060 43000
SOCORRO................... 056/095 056/086 056 43000
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 055/085 055/077 054 43000
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 050/088 052/079 047 43001
CARRIZOZO................. 057/093 057/081 056 43001
RUIDOSO................... 051/086 057/075 056 43101
RATON..................... 048/082 047/073 047 43132
LAS VEGAS................. 049/084 048/075 049 43102
ROY....................... 054/082 051/075 051 43112
CLAYTON................... 060/081 053/075 056 43133
SANTA ROSA................ 056/092 056/081 057 43102
TUCUMCARI................. 065/091 060/082 061 43113
FORT SUMNER............... 059/092 059/082 061 43102
CLOVIS.................... 063/092 061/082 062 43212
PORTALES.................. 064/094 063/082 064 43212
ROSWELL................... 064/098 064/086 064 432-2
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
106 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

NMZ001>021-026-211200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
106 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...IN UNION COUNTY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 2 PM AND ABOUT 8 PM TODAY
FOR UNION COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF QUAY...HARDING AND COLFAX COUNTIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
OR NEAR UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY..COLFAX...EASTERN MORA...AND
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             WILLARD                 34.59N 106.03W
06/19/2004  0.88 INCH        TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

0420 PM     HAIL             4 S MAXWELL             36.48N 104.54W
06/19/2004  0.88 INCH        COLFAX             NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0455 PM     HAIL             4 S MAXWELL             36.48N 104.54W
06/19/2004  0.88 INCH        COLFAX             NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0507 PM     HAIL             11 SE PECOS             35.46N 105.54W
06/19/2004  1.00 INCH        SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0517 PM     HAIL             15 SW LAS VEGAS         35.45N 105.41W
06/19/2004  0.75 INCH        SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     HAIL             5 N FARLEY              36.43N 104.04W
06/19/2004  1.25 INCH        COLFAX             NM   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 45 MINUTES...SMALL HAIL PIECES STILL REMAIN ON
            GROUND AT TIME OF REPORT/1030AM SUNDAY.

0625 PM     HAIL             15 NE ABBOTT            36.46N 104.07W
06/19/2004  1.25 INCH        COLFAX             NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

0745 PM     HAIL             4 N GLADSTONE           36.36N 103.97W
06/19/2004  1.75 INCH        UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     HAIL             15 E GLADSTONE          36.30N 103.70W
06/19/2004  1.75 INCH        UNION              NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&
UPDATED TO INCLUDE DELAYED REPORTS.

DPORTER