Flash Flooding and Hail in New Mexico, July 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
910 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.UPDATE...ONGOING SEVERE WX ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAIN
CONCERN REST OF TONIGHT. APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST TWO DISTINICT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...ONE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UNION COUNTY AND THE OTHER TRACKING ACROSS QUAY COUNTY. BOTH
OF THESE MCC/CS HAVE CORES NEAR -75C. MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS WITH SHORT
FUSED PRODUCTS AND NOW/S. THIS PART OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER A
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW EVIDENT IN THE 00Z PLOT
DATA. FARTHER SOUTH... THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZIATION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LINEAR ACROSS EASTERN CHAVES COUNTY. UPDATED GRIDS AND
TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.  ACROSS THE WEST...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS SC/SW NEW MEXICO. 00Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE LAYER OF SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND 500
MB. LOWER LEVELS ON ABQ SOUNDING CONTAMINATED BY TSTM OUTFLOW. GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS FEEL SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SW/SC ZONES WILL
MOVE UP THE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PLAN TO RETAIN LOW CHC
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL ZONES. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE STATE. UPPER
LOW NEAR THE BAJA YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED INTO OLD MEXICO AND HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH ON WATER VAPOR. DISTURBANCE
PROJECTED TO TRACK OVER E AZ AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HAMPERING INCOMING
SOLAR OVER THE SW PART OF THE STATE THIS AM...HOWEVER CLOUD DECK IS
SHIFTING N. COULD SEE A DECENT CROP OF STORMS OVER THE GILA/W MTNS
AS WELL AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AS WELL OVER THE SACRAMENTO/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND WILL DRIFT
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY LINE BACKED INTO E NM LAST NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF JUICE IN THE WAKE AS DEW POINTS ROSE TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
SIDED WITH THE ETA AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM GUADALUPE
TO CHAVES COUNTIES. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH IS
TRACKING THROUGH W TX/OK PANHANDLES. WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
E HALF OF THE STATE...STEERING FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NOT
ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...AS FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED.

UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG E TX COASTLINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THIS FEATURE SHALL CONTINUE ITS PATH INTO TX...BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE BY THE TIME AS IT UNDERCUTS RIDGE. MODELS STILL HAVING
SOME DIFFICULTY PROJECTING ITS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST
POPS THIS WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL/W CWA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS COULD KEEP THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE W FA. WILL SEE
REPEAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE STORMS EACH DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIDING
WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE IN AREAS WERE THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
LOCATED.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/DPORTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

NMZ001>021-026-101200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
347 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT OF RISING WATER
IN LOCAL ARROYOS AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE GILA AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT OF
RISING WATER IN LOCAL ARROYOS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

46/DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             13 E GLADSTONE          36.30N 103.74W
07/09/2004  0.75 INCH        UNION              NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MAF