Flash Flood in New Jersey, September 28 to 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

AN UPDATED ZFP WAS SENT. DIGITAL GRAPHICS WERE ALSO UPDATED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PORTIONS OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAVE EXITED THE SRN DELMARVA ZONES.

KDIX RADAR SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. SOME OF
THIS WIND IS MIXING DOWN IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WET
GROUNDS WERE GETTING REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES. THERE IS LITTLE IF
ANY LIGHTNING BEING GENERATED. SO THE USUAL WARNING SIGNS THAT A
THUNDERSTORM AND IN THIS CASE STRONG WINDS MAY BE ON THE WAY ARE NOT
OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS THE LAST HOUR THAT IVE SEEN HAVE HAVE BEEN IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WINDS ARE GUSTING WITHOUT WARNING AND ARE POSING A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

BESIDES THE WINDS, THE OBVIOUS OTHER STORY IS THE AMOUNT OF WATER
THAT IS FALLING. THE USUAL CONVECTIVE Z/R RELATIONSHIP ON KDIX WAS
UNDERESTIMATING EARLIER TODAY. WE ARE NOW IN TROPICAL Z/R. BASED ON
THE LATEST GROUND TRUTH WE CAN FIND, STORM TOTAL IS NOW ESTIMATING
TO HIGH BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO. THE HIGHEST NUMBERS WE ARE
SEEING ARE BETWEEN 6.00 AND 7.00 INCHES. NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT.
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE OUT AT THE MOMENT(ABOUT
A DOZEN). DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RFC SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE SHOULD SEE STAGES RISE TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 3/4 BANKFULL. AT THIS TIME, A REPEAT OF TWO WEEKENDS AGO
IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WERE HEARING OF A LOT OF WATER RESCUES.
IF DRIVING TONIGHT, TURN AROUND IF YOU SEE A FLOODED ROADWAY. DONT
GO AROUND BARRICADES.

KRUZDLO

-------------------------PREVIOUS AFD----------------------------

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY, SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN WIND. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK LOOK TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE REMNANT CENTER OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MIDLEVEL CENTER IS TRACKING FARTHER
NORTH THAT ORIGINALLY THOUGHT YESTERDAY, AND THIS HAD GREATLY
IMPACTING THE FORECAST. WHEN IN DOUBT, ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. THE
WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA. THE DRY SLOT ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ROTATED UP THROUGH OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TODAY. MORE HEATING OCCURRED TODAY AS A
RESULT OF THIS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ,
DE, NORTHEAST MD AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON REVEALED A SHARP BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MIDLEVEL CENTER. AN ARC OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY (SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG) HAS BEEN PRESENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. PROFILES DO SHOW
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ROTATION.
WITH THE CONVECTIVE ARC MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, CELLS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME ROTATION. A
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. KUDOS TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SAYING SHOULD GO, NEVER TRUST THE
REMNANTS OF A HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM.

AS FOR WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS MOVE OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. WHILE THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
A BIT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
THE GRADIENT REALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT DOES SHOW
900 MB AROUND 40 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PROMOTE MAINLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND, AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN TONIGHT AND
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS, THIS LOOKS CORRECT. THEREFORE, HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST AREAS, HOWEVER MAINTAINED A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT STRONGER NOW WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC (20%) POPS FOR LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WELL DEPICTED UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY, THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS MORE POTENT
WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER THE ETA DAMPENS THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE DEFINED WITH THIS FEATURE,
ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ETA DO SPIT OUT
SOME PRECIP WITH THIS TO OUR WEST, BUT THE ETA HAS A DIFFICULT
TIME MOVING IT EASTWARD. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, DECIDED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. DID INCREASE THE
SKY COVER A BIT THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY WILL BE KEPT DRY AS WELL AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
A BIT. THE ETA WANTS TO SPIT OUT SOME QPF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST,
WHILE THE GFS STICKS BETTER WITH THE RIDGING AND KEEPS US DRY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE IS A RATHER DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFSS DEPICTION
MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE, IT WILL
DEFINITELY TURN MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE LOW CHC (30%) POP FOR SATURDAY,
BUT HAVE EXTENDED THEM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER
CHC TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT.
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY, HOWEVER
DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARD THE GFS MOS.

THANKS TO ALL THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION TODAY

&&

.MARINE...
REMNANTS OF JEANNE OVER VIRGINIA THIS AFTN WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
TONIGHT AND OUT TO SEA WED. SSE WINDS ON THE OCEAN HAVE INCREASED TO
15 TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL SWING TO SE...E...NE...THEN N AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TNGT INTO WED NGT.
WILL CONT THE GALE WRNG ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ON DEL BAY. TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF 3 TO 6 TENTHS WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 1 1/2 FT BY WED
MRNG...THEN BEGIN TO DROP OFF SLOWLY BY LATE WED. THIS DEPARTURE
ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WED MRNG IN AREAS MOST
SUSCEPTABLE TO FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO CONT MOST SITES THROUGH
THE EVNG HOURS WITH RAIN AND SCT TSTMS. PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING. VFR CONDS RETURN WED
AS THE LOW PRES SYS MOVES OUT TO SEA. N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PARTS OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE LONG,
BUT WILL LET IT RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT, WITH THE COASTAL ZONES SEEING THE RAIN END LAST. MOST
OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR.
THE POCONO COUNTIES AND INTO NORTHWEST NJ HAVE PICKED UP THE BULK OF
THE RAIN SO FAR, WITH HEAVY RAIN NOW BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF DE.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR, PER DOPPLER RADAR
DATA. WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT,
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL LIKELY RISE HIGHER THAN ORGINALLY THOUGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE POOR DRAINAGE AND HIGHWAY FLOODING. ALL
FORECAST POINTS ALONG OUR WATERWAYS, RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONSULT FLOOD STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
  ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR PAZ067-068-070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
  ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR NJZ016>027.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
  ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL ZONES.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
  ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL ZONES.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
ANZ450>455          AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON DELAWARE BAY
ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...GORSE
MARINE/AVIATION...RPW
HYDROLOGY...GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-290849-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
452 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES

.DAY ONE...

RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TODAY ELSEWHERE AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY BE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH FLOODING IN POOR DRAINING AREAS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. PLEASE SEE MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WINDS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

EBERWINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TORNADO          CHERRY HILL             39.90N 75.00W
09/28/2004                   CAMDEN             NJ   NWS STORM SURVEY

            F0 TORNADO...70 MPH WIND. PATH 2 1/2 MILES LONG...ABOUT
            50 FT WIDE. NORTHERN PART OF PATH IS INTERMITTENT. SOME
            TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN. ROOF DAMAGE TO AT LEAST TWO
            STORES.

&&

AMC

NJZ016>023-027-290500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1035 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY AT THIS TIME. AROUND AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL FALL BETWEEN
10 PM AND 1 AM AND WILL CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...THIS SHOULD KNOCK DOWN SOME WEAK AND OR
SHALLOW ROOTED TREES. IF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT PARK UNDER ANY
TREES. PLEASE TAKE ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO JUDGE THE DEPTH OF WATER
ON THE ROADWAYS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 1100 PM
AND 1 AM TONIGHT ENDING FIRST TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1103 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

NJZ016>024-027-290500-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN AND VINELAND
1103 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY AT THIS TIME. AROUND AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL FALL BETWEEN
10 PM AND 1 AM AND WILL CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...THIS SHOULD KNOCK DOWN SOME WEAK AND OR
SHALLOW ROOTED TREES. IF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT PARK UNDER ANY
TREES. PLEASE TAKE ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO JUDGE THE DEPTH OF WATER
ON THE ROADWAYS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 1100 PM
AND 1 AM TONIGHT ENDING FIRST TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

TFG