Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in New Jersey, March 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 PM EST THU MAR 18 2004

IMPRESSIVE S/W SEEN ON H20 VAPOR SAT PIX GETTING READY TO MOVE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PA AND WEST VA. WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHTING HAS
DEVELOPED.

THE ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT THE MOST MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT/S
EVENT. THIS NOT TOO UNCOMMON THIS WINTER. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH QPF
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SEEM ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM.
ALTHOUGH NOTED CONVECTION CONCEIVABLY COULD PUT DOWN A COMPARABLE
AMOUNT.

SOME OF TONIGHTS FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND A DEVELOPING STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW IN OPPOSITION WITH INTENSE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT AND
DIABATIC COOLING AT THE SURFACE. CLOSER TO THE COAST OR ACROSS SE NJ
FOR INSTANCE WE COULD SEE INTENSE SNOWFALL DUE TO A DYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION BUT SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION DUE TO A
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL AND GROUND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO MELT. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF SNOW IS GOING TO ACCUMULATE IN MARCH,
THE BEST CHANCES ARE AT NIGHT.

IN GENERAL, HAVE KEPT THE FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST AS IS. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS, BUT NOT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. JUST ABOUT ALL THE QPF PROGS
AS WELL AS H7 OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. BASED OFF QPF FIELDS AND
THE LACK OF AN OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION, 7 INCHES MIGHT BE A TAD
TOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS. BUT TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THIS AREA HAS
PROVEN ITS AN EFFICIENT SNOWMAKER. THUS HAVE LEFT ALONG.

COULD SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR.
THIS REGION HAD A SIMILAR EVENT BACK IN JANUARY AND RECEIVED 8
INCHES. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT FOR A CLIPPER. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
KEPT THE 8 INCHES GOING. THE PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO MID MORNING.

HAVE ISSUED GALES FOR THE LOWER BAY AND A SCA FOR THE UPPER.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055/060>062/067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026.
     WINTER WX ADVY TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR NJZ021-022.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE/OCEAN...GALE WRNG FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
               ANZ450>455.
MARINE/DEL BAY...GALE WARNING LOWER DE BAY ANZ431...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UPPER DE BAY ANZ430.

KRUZDLO

------------------------PREVIOUS AFD-------------------------------

.SYNPOSIS...
UPPER LO SRN GRTLKS AND OHIO VLY WL CAUSE SFC LO PRES TO DVLP SIGLY
ON ITS EWD TREK THIS EVE. LO MOVS THRU NRN VA/NRN CHESAPEAKE REGION
LATER TNGT BFR EXITING QUICKLY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ERY FRI
MRNG, THEN INTENSIFIES STGLY DURG FRI AS IT MOVS ENEWD OFF THE CST
FRI AND FRI NITE. HI PRES WL BLD OVR THE CWA LATER FRI AND FRI NITE
BUT MOV SE AND OFSHR SAT. A CDFNT WL APCH THE REGION FM THE WNW SAT
AND ERY SAT NITE AND MOV PAST THE COAST ERY SUN MRNG. A NW FLOW WL
PREVAIL AS HI PRES WORKS SLOLY EWD THRU THE MS AND OH VLYS MON BFR
REACHING THE CST TUE. AFTER THE HI MOVS OFSHR LATER TUE A SW FLO IS
FCST TO PREVAIL OVR THE CWA INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ETA ARE EERILY SIMILAR. EVEN GFS PCPN AMTS HAVE INCRSD SINCE
YDA. WS WRNG WAS ISSUED JUST A BIT EARLIER THIS MRNG FOR NRN AND
CNTRL ZONES. OVR SRN ZONES, WL ISSUE AN ADVY FOR THE NEXT STRIP OF
COUNTIES DOWN FM THE WRNG IN NJ (CUMBERLAND AND ATLANTIC) TO COVER
TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW. SINCE AN EXTREME GRADIENT IS XCPD IN CECIL
MD AND NEW CASTLE DE WL NOT HAVE AN ADVY FURTHER S IN MD OR DE. LO
LVL TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S SRN THIRD OF CWA, AND TO NR
40 OR IN THE LWR 40S CNTRL THIS AFTN. SO, SOME LIQUID SHUD OCCUR AT
ONSET CNTRL AND MAINLY LIQUID S, BUT AS INTENSITY INCREASES ERY TNGT
PCPN SHUD BCM ALL SNOW CNTRL ZONES DURG THE NGT AND THEN FOLLOW SUIT
SRN ZONES LATE TNGT.

GENL E-W MOVMT OF SFC/MID LVL LO DICTATE AN E-W HVY SNOW BAND
ORIENTED THRU SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ. PERHAPS BAND WL BE A BIT WIDER
AND EXTEND N INTO OUR NRN ZONES (SEE BELOW), BUT WE ARE IN GENL
AGREEMENT WITH HPCS ASSESSMENT OF HIEST AMTS OF 5-8 INCHES THRU THE
MIDDLE OF OUR CWA. CONCERN IS THAT EVEN SOME NRN ZONES WL CREEP
UPWARD WITH COMBO OF TERRAIN EFX PSBL MID LVL INVOLVEMENT WITH LO
LVL WRAP-ARND MSTR LATE TNGT/ERY FRI MRNG AS STORM PULLS AWAY,
CAUSING SOME N-COMPONENT BANDING. THUS, FEEL WRNG FOR NRN AREAS IS
STILL VALID AND WL BE CONTDD.

AFTER THIS LAST HURRAH TO WINTER (HOPEFULLY), A LESS SIG CDFNT APCHS
SAT AND MOVS THRU LATE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG. WL ADD A CHC OF RW INTO ERN
ZONES ERY SUN MRNG. THEN, HI MOVS TO CST TUE AND OFSHR LATE TUE/TUE
NITE, SETTING US UP FOR A SWLY FLO INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS TROF STALLS W OF US.

TEMPS...STAYED GENLY WITH THE WARMER MAVS FOR NOW, AS THEY SEEMED
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE FIRST CPL OF PDS.
&&

.MARINE...UPDATED
WL ISSUE GALE WRNG ON THE OCEAN FOR LATER FRI MRNG INTO FRI
EVENING...AND CONT THE SCA ON DE BAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EST THU MAR 18 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-181300-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
600 AM EST THU MAR 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND FOR MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME
SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

IOVINO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EST THU MAR 18 2004

.A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO GALE
FORCE ALONG THE COAST.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.

NJZ013-014-020-022>026-191400-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
610 PM EST THU MAR 18 2004

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE FOR
FRIDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THESE STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING.

THESE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
FRIDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.  THE HIGH TIDE WILL REACH LEVELS BETWEEN
6.5 AND 7.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
STARTS AT 6.7 FEET.  HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL OCCUR
AROUND 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND WILL OCCUR
SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON THE BACK BAYS.

SZATKOWSKI