Flood in New Jersey, April 27 to 28, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EDT MON APR 26 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED EVENING FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM ALL ZONES...NOW THAT AMS HAS STABILIZED IN RAIN-COOLED AIR. THE
COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE HANGING BACK OVER CENTRAL PA AS OUR WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT SELY TO SWLY...AND SFC DEWPTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. SOME FOG HAS DEVLPD BUT DONT BELIEVE IT WILL GET VERY THICK
WITH CLOUD COVER CONTG MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WEST EDGE OF THE RAIN
CONTS TO CLEAR EWD AND BELIEVE IT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 1 OR 2 HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST BEYOND THE 1ST PD.

AMC
-----------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 420 PM...

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE POCONOS AND
LEHIGH VALLEY...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE JERSEY AND
DELAWARE SHORE...AND THE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. AFTER THAT...PCPN TAKES A BREAK UNTIL LATE TUES
MORNING OR EARLY TUE AFTN AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON TUESDAY...BUT DID
NOT MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
HOW HIGH MAX TEMPS ACTUALLY GET ON TUE. THEN UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR TUES NIGHT
AS H85 TEMPS TAKE A NOSEDIVE. SOME FROST/FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF PHL TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEW JERSEY. AN SPS HAS BEEN
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE ELEMENTS. WED LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS BUT WITH A REBOUND EXPECTED ON THU.
&&

.LONG TERM...
AXIS OF UPPER H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT...THEN FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT INTO SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
SEAS STILL UP ON THE OCEAN SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. NO PROBLEMS ON
THE BAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE CWA
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH ALMOST NOTHING FALLING AT THE
SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE SHORE POINTS AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS...WESTERN LEHIGH VALLEY...AND BERKS COUNTY. WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN NOW TO THE EAST...FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR SOME PONDING IN THE USUAL LOWSPOTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MPO 42 55 29 51 / 20 40 10 10
ABE 47 61 34 59 / 30 40 10 10
RDG 48 62 36 60 / 30 40 10 10
PHL 51 65 40 61 / 40 30 10 10
12N 43 52 31 52 / 40 40 10 10
SMQ 48 63 35 60 / 40 40 10 10
TTN 50 64 36 61 / 50 40 10 10
MIV 49 65 37 61 / 70 30 10 10
N55 51 63 39 58 / 80 30 10 10
ACY 50 65 36 60 / 70 30 10 10
ILG 50 64 38 62 / 40 30 10 10
DOV 51 65 38 61 / 60 30 10 10
GED 51 67 38 61 / 80 30 10 10
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE/OCEAN...SCA.
MARINE/DEL BAY...NONE.
&&

24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-260824-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
425 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED LOWER DELMARVA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THROUGHOUT THE REGION SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SOME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR WARNING
AREA TODAY IF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH OR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING IS
ISSUED.

TFG