Damaging Wind in Nevada, June 3, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT THUR JUN 3 2004

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RISK OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CU DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING OVER MTNS IN ERN AND CENTRAL
NV ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE WATCH TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME SITES NEAR
RECORDS AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT FIRE
WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC FOR DRY TSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY GIVEN INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH GFS MAY BE
OVERDONE ON SATURDAY WITH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS TOO
STRONG WITH THETA-E AXIS OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW WILL SEE TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASE
IN WINDS...MOST NOTABLY ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY...IF NOT
STRONGER.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
CONTINUING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER NEVADA ON TUESDAY HAVE STRONG DYNAMICS AND HAVE
ADDED POPS WITH TSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY. WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AT THE MOMENT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT MODELS STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY HERE
EVEN WITH UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOWING TROUGH BEING MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW SLOWER CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION. WILL GO WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED AS THESE SYSTEMS SEEM TO BE SLOWER
THAN QUICKER IN LEAVING THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

FEHRN