Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, June 3, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

.CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALREADY ONGOING OVER
EASTERN LEVY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90. MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. 50H SHEAR AXIS AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL AND SPC
HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR MY NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF
LEVY...CITRUS...AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM EDT...AND HAVE JUST
UPDATED THE ZONES FOR ITS ISSUANCE. GOOD BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING WITH BEST AREAL
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG CONVERGING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...THEN CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN LATE IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. FRIDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED. WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING IN PLACE SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH...THE MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR
HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP MEANS MAX TEMPS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD CLIMO-LEVELS. MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THURS)...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY SIGNAL TRUE START OF THE RAINY SEASON WITH TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME WEATHER CONDITIONS. SE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IN PLACE COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON WEST
COAST SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT WILL LATER COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS NORTH. AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE S-SE TIMING OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FROM THE EARLY MORNING TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NO WATCHES OF FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 077 090 075 087/ 10 50 20 50
FMY 072 091 073 089/ 20 50 20 50
GIF 073 092 072 087/ 30 50 40 50
SRQ 073 088 072 086/ 10 50 20 50
BKV 069 090 068 088/ 20 50 20 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM....DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

FLZ039-042-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
5 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS
THUNDERSTORMS...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY STRONG AS THEY
PUSH INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUST OF 35 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

...A RETURN TO MORE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PART
OF SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS
COULD AGAIN BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
CHANCES THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEST COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1221 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

FLZ039-042-043-032100-
CITRUS-LEVY-SUMTER-
1221 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 390 IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SUMTER...LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AFTER 1
PM...WHICH MAY AFFECT SUMTER AS WELL AS INLAND LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES.  THE LINE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING TO LEVY COUNTY...AFTER 3 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

FLZ060>062-032000-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-SARASOTA-
320 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FORT OGDEN...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
OGDEN...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.