Heavy Rain in Nevada, July 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...
T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LYON...MINERAL...AND MONO COUNTIES SO
FAR WITH CUMULUS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE REGION. NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY BASED ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. CELLS HAVE PULSED TO A GREATER
INTENSITY OVER MINERAL AND SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY THAN YESTERDAY BUT
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH SO FAR. A CELL WHICH
MOVED OVER A WEATHER SENSOR IN SCHURZ PRODUCED 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL
IN AN HOUR SO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY NEED MENTION IF CELLS
BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. SW-W WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER
THE TAHOE BASIN AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CARSON RANGE BETWEEN RENO
AND CARSON CITY...AS A RESULT THE CUMULUS HAS REMAINED GENERALLY
FLAT. OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY BE THE ONLY MEANS FOR PRODUCING ANY
TSTMS IN THE RENO-CARSON OR TAHOE AREAS AND THAT THREAT COULD BE
OVER IN THOSE ZONES BEFORE THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE IS ISSUED.

BY MONDAY THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER MOST AREAS. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...THE ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
CA-NV BORDER AS UNDULATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BAND MAY CONTAIN WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL BY THE MODELS.

THE MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES BY TUES AFTERNOON NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME WHILE MOST MODELS KEEP ALL ZONES DRY ON WED. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
MESO ETA GENERATES SOME QPF IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTY AGAIN LATE
WED AFTERNOON SO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED
IF UPCOMING RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA.
MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH MID-UPPER 90S IN THE WRN NV
VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK. WIND GUSTS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MAY BE
AROUND 30 MPH ON MON AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO THE
20-25 MPH RANGE FOR TUES-WED AND OCCUR OVER A SHORTER DURATION. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO REAL CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SWRN U.S. KEEPING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS UNDER S-SE FLOW. KEPT POPS
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING ON THURSDAY AND COVERING THE
WHOLE CWA BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND IMPLYING LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL PWS
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ON FRI/SAT. AFTERNOON WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH DIFFUSE THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE SIERRA AND CENTRAL NV. JORDAN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&