Heavy Snow in Nevada, December 28 to 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
800 PM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA INTO
THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE LOTS OF CLOUDS...
COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING MIDWEEK.
&&

.UPDATED...ADDED ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
DECREASED POPS IN SEVERAL OF THE ZONES FROM LIKELY TO SCATTERED FOR
TONIGHT AS VORT FIELD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND DRY SLOT MOVES OVER
CWA. LATEST IR SAT PIC SHOWS CLOUDS AND MAIN PPRECIPITATIONARE
ALMOST OUT OF CWA AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT VORT FEATURE STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN
NORTHERN NYE AND THEN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REST OF CWA DURING THE
DAY. SETTJE
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SINCE 12Z ETA MODEL RUN HAS INITIALIZATION ERRORS
WITH THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST AS PER PMDHMD DISCUSSION
WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT AS
UPPER LOW KICKS INLAND THIS EVENING. AT SAME TIME...GFS FORECAST
GOOD QPF AMOUNTS WITH STRONG 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENT COUPLET
OVER THIS AREA. CONCERN IS SOUTHWEST FLOW NOT BEST PCPN PATTERN FOR
CWA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPING WILL EFFECT AREAS FROM SIERRAS SO NO
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. STILL... LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LOW WEAKENS AND KICKS OUT AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD CA COAST. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS SINCE UPPER H7 FLOW MOIST AND MAINLY DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING TROF AND GOOD DYNAMICS
ACROSS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR LIKELY POPS. HARMER

.LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF DUE TO PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE. ECMWF TAKES
DEEP PACIFIC LOW DOWN THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ON A SIMILAR TRACK
TO THE CURRENT EVENT...WHILE THE GFS LOOKS TO BE IN ERROR AGAIN
BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE NRN INTERMTN REGION. WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
EXPECT CHC POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WLY FLOW
SHIFTING TO SWLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.  MORRISON
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
530 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

NVZ030>034-036-037-290800-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
530 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WILL BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH NEVADA TODAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR THE 5000 FEET LEVEL ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NEVADA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA PRIOR TO NEW YEARS DAY. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEW YEARS DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NVZ013-035-290800-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
336 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN
SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH NEVADA TODAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TODAY IN EAST CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEVADA
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
THE VALLEYS WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRUDEL