Hail in Nebraska, July 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NEAR BURLINGTON
COLORADO TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER UTAH AND
COLORADO CENTERED OVER WESTERN COLORADO. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANTICYCLONIC RING OF CONVECTION WITH
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT IN WYOMING AS CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THEIR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR NEIGHBORHOOD
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL PREFER THE GFS MODEL TODAY DUE TO ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GFS IS STILL TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES SO
WITH GO A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS. ETA MODEL STILL TOO DRY.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CENTER HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST SINCE YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ROUNDING THE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS FORECAST INCREASED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN UPPER FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
MOVE OVER AREA WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MAINLY
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) WILL ONLY
MAKE MINOR CHANGES. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH IN
UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT DYNAMICS AND LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAKE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED DAY SEVEN WHICH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RATHER STRONGLY
HINTS AT BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 7.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
548 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

THERE IS A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO GOVE
COUNTY KANSAS WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM CDT). GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS
BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION MOSTLY DRY DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

DDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
07/15/2004  0.75 INCH        YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

0430 PM     HAIL             YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
07/15/2004  1.25 INCH        YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
450 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
07/15/2004  2.00 INCH        YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

COZ090-KSZ001>004-013>016-029-NEZ079>081-160600-
CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR-DUNDY-GOVE-GRAHAM-HITCHCOCK-NORTON-RAWLINS-
RED WILLOW-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-YUMA-
547 PM MDT (647 PM CDT) THU JUL 15 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 644 FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
(1 AM CDT).

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

IN EASTERN COLORADO...YUMA.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW.

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...THOMAS...RAWLINS...
DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GOVE...GRAHAM AND NORTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTION
IMMEDIATELY.

LAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW VERNON            39.93N 102.34W
07/15/2004                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60MPH WINDS 2 INCH LIMBS DOWN

0754 PM     HAIL             2 SW ATWOOD             39.79N 101.07W
07/15/2004  0.75 INCH        RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS

0810 PM     HAIL             6 N ATWOOD              39.81N 101.04W
07/15/2004  0.75 INCH        RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
824 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NW ST. FRANCIS       39.90N 101.97W
07/15/2004  60 MPH           CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BOYD