Hail in Nebraska, August 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

SURFACE FRONT WAS STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BEING HELD UP BY UPPER TROUGH
ROLLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...AND WERE SPREADING EAST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WAS OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SO EXPECT MAIN ACTIVITY TO STAY WEST OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...MUCH LIKE THE ETA
HAS BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA.  MORNING CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SPC HAS
MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY...BUT AM EXPECTING MAJORITY
OF RISK TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE COINCIDING WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING.  ALTHOUGH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY BE THWARTED A BIT WITH SOME CLOUDS
AND PRECIP...STILL AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
HAIL AND/OR WIND.  HAVE BASED TODAYS FORECAST ON ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH...THEN LIKELY REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WORKING SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL WAVE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS.  GFS HAS BEEN MORE BULLISH ON
QPF IN THE CWA...AND IN DRIVING AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST
THAN THE ETA.  BOTH MODELS AGREE THE SOUTHWEST CWA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  GIVEN THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT PRECIP AXIS TO MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE ETA
DEPICTION SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AFTER THIS ROUND OF PRECIP...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOL WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SOMEWHAT COOLER MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT STILL TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 GIVEN PLENTY OF
INSOLATION.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK WITH CLOUDS/RAIN HOLD TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY...AND SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION DRIVING 850 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2004

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-081100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-KNOX-MADISON-MONONA IA-
PIERCE-PLATTE-STANTON-THURSTON-WAYNE-
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TONIGHT SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...LINGERING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS TIME COULD
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW FOR THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE
NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-
081100-
BUTLER-CASS-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
LANCASTER-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-
WASHINGTON-
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
FOR THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

DEWALD